Research On Credit Risk Evaluation Model Of China’s Manufacturing Enterprises

Manufacturing industry is the pillar industry of the national economy, especially for the large listing corporation, their development directly influence the economy of our country. However, facing the complex domestic and international environment, the credit risk of the manufacturing enterprises in our country is increasingly exposed. As important customers to the commercial bank of our country, the credit default of the manufacturing listed companies will have a negative effect on the commercial banks and even the social economy. Therefore, the risk is worthy of attention compared with others. It is high time to establish the credit risk evaluation model of listed companies in our country so that to strengthen internal management of the companies and provide basic reference for loan of the commercial bank.Through the theoretic overview of the credit risk and the assessment method, the article analyzed the choice of evaluation model and set up logistics credit risk assessment model for the manufacturing listed companies in China. In the empirical research, we selected 76 public companies from manufacturing industry as study objects, in which 38 companies with high credit risk and 38 companies with low risk, using their financial data in the year of 2013.After getting the eight main factors by using the factor analysis method with 16 representative financial indicators and 12 non-financial indicators, this paper used logistic regression model to built the evaluation model, and then used the test samples to inspect, and the results showed that the model has a high fitting degree and has a good prediction result. In addition to the five kinds of financial indicators that represent the repayment ability of the enterprises, the non-financial indicators, which include the ownership structure, the corporate governance factors and the market status, are also the important factors of China’s manufacturing enterprises. In these factors, the solvency and market position of the company are the most significant. Finally, in order to make the model be better applied to the credit risk assessment of manufacturing enterprises in our country, the article puts forward the policy Suggestions form the aspects of the enterprise information disclosure mechanism, the information database and also the dynamic adjustment of the model.