| Direct power purchase by large consumers (DDP), refers to direct buy-and-sell electrical trades between power users and generations who are conform to the requirement, according to the principle of voluntary participation, and the grid enterprises provide transmission services by the regulation. In the DDP pilots, the implementation of the DDP breaks the electricity sale monopoly of the grid company, and changes the "single pay and single sell" to "multi-buy and multi-sell". To a certain extent, it promotes the production efficiency of power generation companies and large users. However, due to the unsound supporting policies, the DDP brings not only opportunities but also challenges. Therefore it is necessary to summarize and analyze the DDP pilot cases in order to ensure the unification of enterprise benefit and social benefit. This paper researches trading simulation and risk analysis based on the pilot cases.The main content of this paper are follows:(1) Based on the current rules, the study of pricing models and transaction simulation have theoretical and practical value. This paper com-putes the balance quotation, establishes a pricing model for generation companies to maximize profit margins, considering incomplete information games. Also, the paper offers a pricing strategy for large consumers based on historical experience as well as supply and demand situation. A transaction mode considering credit indicators to simulate the pilot current bilateral deals is proposed.(2) This dissert identifies risks, raises the specific evaluation index and builds a complete evaluation system, from the perspective of social justice and organizers. Considering the impact of policy factors, the paper makes risk assessment of a specific pilot, and the analysis results can provide a reference for the risk quantification and policy making. Then policy decisions are made, using PSO algorithm and aiming at the minimization of the financial risk and equity risk. |
PDF Full Text Request