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Empirical Study On The Influence Of Urbanization Development To Consumption Of Urban And Rural Residents In China

Posted on:2017-03-15Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:L CaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2309330482489012Subject:Quantitative Economics
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China’s economy has achieved rapid growth for more than 30 years and created the "China’s miracle" since reform and opening up depending on the demographic dividend reform bonus and the advantage of science and technology. Nowadays, China has become the second largest economy in the world. At the present stage, with the deepening of economic globalization, the world economic structure is changing all the time and the risk of the international market has increased. International trade remains in the doldrums and domestic investment falls after a long period of rapid growth. The way of pulling economic growth mainly relying on investment and export can not continue, expanding domestic consumption demand especially consumer effective demand is the most lasting impetus to the growth of the national economy. However, under the new normal background of economic development, the current situation of China’s consumer market is that urban residents’ consumption grows slowly and rural residents’ consumption is in a serious shortage. Consumer market development momentum remains to be further enhanced. In view of this, actively promote urbanization and achieve the goal of promoting economic growth by increasing consumer demand become the key to the economic development of our country at the present stage. Urbanization is a great opportunity for the growth of personal consumption in China and it is also the main engine to promote the growth of consumer demand in China. Therefore, around the impact of urbanization on the consumption of residents, it is of great practical significance and practical value to the development of relevant economic policies to verify and add this logic from an empirical point of view.Based on the review of related literature at home and abroad, first of all, we do an overview of the connotation of urbanization and consumption, sort out the mechanism of urbanization for the consumption of urban and rural residents. By analysis of China’s urbanization development and the present situation of urban and rural residents’ consumption, we find the shortage and clear the background and significance of our research. The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of urbanization on the consumption of residents in China. We distinguish the urban residents and rural residents, research from three aspects, the impact of urbanization on consumption totality, consumption structure and the sustainability growth of consumption.In the aspect of the impact of urbanization on consumption totality and consumption structure, we use Engel coefficient instead of consumption structure, explore the association relation of urbanization rate, consumption expenditure and consumption structure in panel vector auto regression model(PVAR). In order to find effects of urbanization on upgrading of consumption structure of residents. We got three conclusions, first, Engel coefficient decrease and consumption structure improve with the increase in consumer spending in China; Second, urbanization development has a positive impact on the growth of consumer spending, and the impact on rural residents is less than the impact of urban residents; Third, urbanization development is conducive to improve the consumption structure of residents, and the improvement effect of the rural residents is stronger than that of the urban residents.In the aspect of the sustainability growth of consumption, we select income as the threshold variable, verified the nonlinear effect of urbanization on the consumption of sustainable growth using panel smooth threshold regression model(PSTR).We got three conclusions, first, urbanization has a positive effect on the consumption of residents, and as income grows the effect increase. Enhanced rate increased gradually, reach the maximum value in the income threshold and then began to decrease. When income increases to a certain extent, urbanization has the greatest positive effect on consumption and tends to be stable and the influence coefficient of the town’s stability is greater than that of the rural area, namely the promotion of urbanization to urban residents’ consumption growth is greater than that in rural areas; Second, the income threshold of towns is much higher than that of rural areas, but the time to reach the threshold of the town is much earlier than that of the rural area.; Third, the time to reach the threshold of relatively developed cities such as Beijing Shanghai and Guangzhou is much earlier than that of the other cities.The difference between this paper and the existing research is that, first, distinguish between two major categories of consumer, urban and rural residents in research. Put forward suggestions to the development of their own characteristics targeted on the basis of comparative analysis. Second, the consumption structure is brought into our research framework of the impact of urbanization on the consumption of resident, comprehensive analysis of the impact of urbanization from both quantity and structure angles. Third, using PSTR model to explore the effect of urbanization on the consumption sustainable growth of residents from the perspective of nonlinear, and reduce the error of the simple using linear model.
Keywords/Search Tags:urbanization development, consumption growth, consumption structure, PSTR model, PVAR model
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