The Study On How The Urbanization Of Land And Demographic Coordinate And Interact Mechanically With Each Other In Changsha

To reveal the harmonious development status of the land urbanization(LU) and the demographic urbanization(DU) in Changsha, as well as the mechanism that how they interact with each other, a set of completed composite indexes of LU and DU has been established. Through building an evaluation model of LU--DU coordinated development, the level has been evaluated during the period form 2005 to 2014. Mapgis is used for grading and spacious analysis of the indexes of LU and DU among every district( county, town) of Changsha in 2014. Furthermore, E-view 6.0 is applied to establish a VAR model, and the interactive mechanism of LU and DU has been researched with co-integration theory, impulse response function and the principle of variance decomposition. Findings are as follows:(1) The indexes of LU and DU have risen simultaneously. The urbanization development model presents a discontinuous tendency of disharmony--harmony--disharmony--harmony--disharmony--disharmony from 2006 to 2014 in Changsha. From the perspective of the class of harmonious development, only three years(2007,2010,2012) are harmonious, while in 2008 are serious imbalance between classes, 2009, 2011 as the moderate disturbance, 2012, 2013 for mild disorder. Besides, only three of the nine years( 2006,2010,2014) belong to LU lagging, and the rest belong to DU lagging.(2) The grades of LU and DU indexes present a trend that they get reduced from central region to the west and the east sides gradually in every district(counties, town) of Changsha, of which the main features of coordinated development spacious patterns are: Belongs to the coordinated development of interval of district(counties, city) surpassing that of disorder; the harmonious development differences being big; the regional differentiation being distinct; the laggard districts(counties, towns) of DU surpassing that of LU.(3)The levels of LU and DU, whose ADF has been tested, show a sequence of second order difference, with an underlying meaning that a sort of long-term stable equilibrium relationship exists between them.(4)There is a co-integration relationship, and also a certain causal relationship between the levels of LU and DU through the co-integration test.(5)Granger Causality Test indicates that the level of DU improving remarkably ascribes to the development of LU, not vice versa.(6)The impulse response function shows: 1) It’s neither a benign interactive relationship, nor a positively increasing relationship between LU and DU in Changsha. 2) The LU has an impact on itself as well as DU as a sustaining forward reaction, which accelerates itself as well as DU very much.3) DU doesn’t affect LU as well as itself notably.4)Among all the urbanization factors, town size, input level, output level play a positive role to LU and DU, while the ecological level has a negative effect on LU and DU.(7)According to the variance analysis, the contribution of LU development to DU far outweighs the contribution of DU development to LU.