Research The Influence Of The Modification Of Industrial Structure On Exchange Rate Regime

Countries can choose between the fixed and floating exchange rate system, as the international monetary system into Jamaica system. Academia and national economic policy makers argued on the choice of exchange rate system, in order to promote the stable growth of its economy through choose a suitable exchange rate regime, but they ignores the development degree and economic structure between different countries,when they choose the exchange rate system. Because the industrial structure can reflect its economic structure and development level, so this article research the influence of industrial structure on exchange rate regime choice, then analysis the arrangement of the RMB exchange rate system in our country’s.The main content of this paper is to explore the influence of the modification of industrial structure on exchange rate regime choice. The author uses normative analysis and empirical analysis to analyze this problem. The full text is divided into six chapters.Chapter 1 mainly introduces the selected topic background and significance, the research goal and the method and the logical framework. Chapter 2 mainly analyzes the theory of exchange rate regime choice. First of all, the author analysis the influencing factors of exchange rate regime choice, through the theory of monetary standard、policy collocation theory、theory of original sin、theoretical、floating fear in theory、economic performance and the theory of economic structure. Then, this paper analyzes the theoretical analysis of the limitations of exchange rate regime choice throgh the macro and micro, long-term and short-term, endogenous and exogenous. The main content of chapter 3 is theoretical analysis of the modification of industrial structure and exchange rate system. First of all, the author analyzes the change mechanism of the industrial structure after generalizing the theories of the industrial structure change; Secondly the paper combed the theory of international trade, because of the influence of country’s industrial structure on the trade structure. Finally the author analyzed the influence of the industrial structure change of exchange rate regime choice mechanism after the comprehensive consideration of industrial structure, trade structure and the choice ofexchange rate system. Chapter 4 of the empirical research is key part of the paper, the content including the selection of variables, setting model, data processing and regression analysis model and the empirical analysis of the industrial structure change on the impact of exchange rate regime choice. The empirical results show that the possibility of choosing a fixed exchange rate system is reduced with the increase of industrial structure. Both present are negative correlation. When the industrial structure increased, the probability of choosing floating exchange rate system increased. Chapter5 analyzed industrial structure change on the influence of exchange rate system combining with the actual situation in our country since 1980. Research has shown that our country choose a managed floating exchange rate system from a fixed exchange rate system with the deepening process of industrial structure.The innovation of this article mainly is to analysis the impact on exchange rate regime choice from the perspective of the change of industrial structure. Although there are many research influence factor of exchange rate system theoretically and empirically,but they ignore the otherness of different national economic structure and development level. Therefore, this article selected the explain variables of the industrial structure and the various factors influencing the exchange rate regime in mainstream theory and analyzed the industrial structure variables impact on exchange rate system by selecting the RR classification based on the fact as explained variable and building a binary Logit analysis model. In addition, there is need to improve the content in this article research:on the one hand, RR taxonomy need to update the data, because it only updates until2010; On the other hand, the paper explored the influence of the modification of industrial structure on exchange rate regime choice based on the analysis of trade structure. Need to study the modification of industrial structure on the function mechanism and transmission mechanism of exchange rate system.