The Influence Of Bird-Flu On The Stability Of The Meat Market And The Market Relevance Analysis

In recent years, major animal epidemics occurred frequently, such as foot-and-mouth disease, bird-flu and swine blue ear disease. These diseases not only affect aquaculture’s healthy development, but put this rush to the consumer market, and then caused a serious imbalance between supply and demand of the livestock meat market. Therefore, the research of this kind of event is always the hot spot in domestic and foreign discussion. However, when combing related studies, still found the following deficiencies:(1) Lack of study on the market relevance during the substitutes in the sudden epidemic; (2) Lack of study by combining the structural catastrophe theory; So, this paper will be based on previous studies, taking the avian influenza occurred in year 2004, to study the livestock meat market’s change(divided into pork, poultry and red meat markets), and look for the solution.Therefore, the research route can be summarized as follows:(1) we will built the market model of the pork, poultry and red meat markets by their concrete conditions, and estimate the supply & demand curve of the pork, poultry and red meat markets; (2) the chow test and the dummy variable method will be exploited in the quantification of the changes to help us find the influence factors, their mechanisms and their influence degrees; (3)establish the VEC model by using the pork, poultry and red meat’s market price, and then use the impulse response function and variance decomposition to analysis the market correlation and interaction size of these three alternatives during avian flu; (4) Based on the ridge regression and the beyond the translog cost function, Establish the poultry meat market’s alternative elastic calculation model, to analyze the elasticity of substitution between pork, poultry and redmeat market, and then, get the three market’s best market share ratio.in current environment of social production, (5) according to the research results, to give some opinions and suggestions.The conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1) The structure of supply & demand of pork, poultry and redmeat market had a huge change in the period of bird flu. The main influence factors are market share, consumer preference, maturation period; (2) The degree of linkage between the pork, poultry and red meat market achieved an average of 56%, that means the changes in the price of a single market is about half from the impact of other market prices; (3) The higher the market share, the greater the impact on other markets. The shorter the incubation period, the higher the self adjustment ability of the market; (4)The best alternative market to adjust the pork market is the poultry market, the elasticity of substitution is 0.3;(5)The best alternative market to adjust the poultry market is the pork market, the elasticity of substitution is 0.7;(6) In the current production and consumption environment, the best ratio during the pork, poultry and redmeat market share should be 3:5:2.The article finally proposed that:(1) the meat-eating structure of residents in our country should be improved to reduce the influence of pork market on the whole market; (2) the livestock industry technology and the meat reserve system should be greatly improved to enhance the recovery capability of the market.