Study On The Influential Factors For The Population Capacity Of Agricultural Land In China And Its Substitution Elasticity

In recent years,due to the speeding up of urbanization and industrialization in our country,the contradiction between human and land is increasingly sharp,urbanization results in land and population transferring to cities.Migrant population flood into the city,which leads to the rapid expansion of city scale,while the loss of rural labor force and rural land have brought a lot of pressure to agricultural production,and the agricultural production directly affect population carrying capacity of agricultural land in our country,therefore,discussing the issue of population carrying capacity of agricultural land is important and practical significance,which also has attracted more and more scholars' attention.Based on the analysis on status of population development,agriculture,consumer food,this paper is to evaluate the level of population carrying capacity of agricultural land in our country from the perspective of agricultural production;to study the factors which influence population carrying capacity of agricultural land with structural equation model,to build the Virtual Execution System production function substitution elasticity model so as to analyze the substitution elasticity relationship among influencing factors of population carrying capacity of agricultural land,and to put forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve the population carrying capacity of agricultural land.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:1.From the perspective of agricultural production,what the research results of evaluation on population carrying capacity of agricultural land suggest are as follows:(1)From 1990 to 2012,the population carrying capacity of agricultural land has been increasing in our country.In 2012,under three kinds of consumption level,that is,well-off life,better-off life,and rich life,the population carrying capacity is 2133.28 million,1870.69 million and 1662.06 million respectively,which has realized continuous growth of land and population carrying capacity.(2)At present,although population carrying capacity of agricultural land has been able to afford the consumption of population in rich life level in our country,the environmental capacity is still at a very short and lack level.2.This paper takes 12 influencing factors from three aspects,that is,the production condition,agricultural science and technology,the natural environment as the three latent variables that influence agricultural land population carrying capacity.With structural equation model,the evaluation on population carrying capacity of agricultural land shows that:(1)Production condition is the direct factor that affects population carrying capacity of agricultural land in China,its factor loading is 0.991.(2)The three latent variables,natural environment,agricultural science and technology,production conditions are related with each other,the correlation coefficient between agricultural science and technology and production condition is 0.764,and the correlation coefficient between natural environment and production condition is 0.892.Agricultural science and technology and the natural environment indirectly affects population carrying capacity of agricultural land by influencing the agricultural production condition.(3)The all measurable variables are related with each other.The correlation coefficient between measurable variables,natural environment and production condition is mostly negative,which means that,the destruction of natural environment affects agricultural production condition.The intern material depletion of agriculture,forestation,shepherd and fishery are negatively related with area of crop planting.We can see that there existing substitution relation between the investment in land and the land area.Total power of agricultural machinery is negatively correlated with unit employees in cities and towns,which indicates that the relative substituting relationship between machinery and labor force.3.With the Virtual Execution System production function substitution elasticity model,the research results of analysis on substitution elasticity relationship among factors that influencing population carrying capacity of agricultural land show that:(1)Machinery replacing labor force is more suitable for the development of China's status.Capital to the substitution elasticity of land is decreasing year by year and less than 1,while machinery to the substitution elasticity of labor is increasing year by year and is greater than 1.This means that the capital investment to land reaches saturation in our country,however,machinery replacement for labor keeps at a higher level.(2)The replacement of labor force with agricultural machinery are related to topographic conditions.Agricultural machinery-strong labor substitution elasticity province are mainly in plain and the rural region with more labor force,which are more suitable for the cultivation of large agricultural machinery.(3)Investment in land replacement is associated with regional economic development and urbanization development.Capital-strong land substitution elasticity province are mainly in the sparsely populated region with backward economic development,strong land substitution elasticity provinces are mainly areas with rapid economic development and highly dense population.Finally,this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the population carrying capacity of agricultural land from the aspects of promoting environment-friendly agricultural development,improving the index of multiple cropping,enhancing intensification of agricultural operation and enhancing the level of agricultural mechanization.