Study On The Effects Of Forward Guidance Of China’s Monetary Policy On Interest Rates Expectation

In the history of the development of monetary policy, the early monetary policy maker tend to the "surprise" monetary policy in an attempt to achieve better effect of monetary policy. Until the ninety’s in the last century, the expected management began to be valued, the forward guidance is gradually introduced into the central bank monetary policy operation and played an indelible role.In recent years, China’s monetary policy in the use of traditional monetary policy tools based on continuous innovation, monetary policy more and more emphasis on the structural, forward looking. However, as a monetary policy tool, forward guidance is the most forward-looking tool, its use is still in its infancy stage. In contrast, the introduction of forward guidance in monetary policy has been more common in the western developed economies, the ultimate goal is to make the public expectation and the implementation of monetary policy strategies to match, so that the introduction of monetary policy will be able to reduce the volatility of the financial markets, the effect of better monetary policy. In practice, the central bank through the effective management and guidance of the public is expected to greatly improve the effectiveness of monetary policy.Domestic studies on prospective guidelines remain at the theoretical stage, the quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of the forward-looking guidance is poor, through the virtual model has built to evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation of the policy as a monetary policy, the process is not only complicated and the actual degree of fit is not strong. On the basis of a large number of foreign scholars’research methods, the author tries to use Treasury bond futures interest rate as an indicator to quantify the effect of the forward guidance in the interest rate futures pricing, and then use the simple multiple regression model to estimate, the impact on the asset price.This paper is divided into four parts; The first part is the introduction, which briefly summarizes the background, significance, literature review, research methods and research framework of this paper, and points out the innovation points and shortcomings of this paper. The second part is about the practice of monetary policy in China. Through the analysis of the practice and effect of forward guidance of monetary policy, we can get the existing problem of our country. The third part is about the empirical test of the effect of our country, through the principal component analysis, and by the VAR model to estimate the impact on the asset price. The forth part is the inspiration of the practice of the forward guidance to the formulation of monetary policy in china and summarizes the research of the problems and prospects.