| The insurance industry has gradually developed into one of the three major industries, including the securities industry and banking industry, The solvency is insurance company to assume the risk of liability in the case of reimbursement and payment of economic compensation ability. If insurance company solvency problems, will not only affect the stability of insurance industry in the development, but also threaten the stability of national economy development. In the view of the insurance industry’s history, the United States and Japan have both had serious solvency crisis. Therefore, in order to eliminate the solvency crisis’s impact on the insurance industry, all the countries begin to put the solvency of insurance regulatory core status. For China’s insurance companies, solvency should at least meet the basic requirements of the CIRC, the only comprehensive index CIRC regulation of insurance company is "solvency ratio", no further to distinguish between comprehensive and professional insurance company. According to the information released by each insurance company in 2014, their solvency ratio have all reached the standard of CIRC. On this basis, this article comparatively study on solvency between comprehensive insurance company and professional insurance company.The first chapter mainly introduce the article selected topic background, the relevant literature reviews and the innovations and shortcomings. The second chapter discusses the classification of insurance and the classification of insurance companies, the focus on this part is dividing insurance companies into comprehensive insurance company and professional insurance company from two aspects of income and expenditure, by the research in this article,107 insurance companies are divided into 70 comprehensive insurance companies and 37 professional insurance companies The third part firstly detail the concept, the factors, the risk and the regulatory of solvency. This part then introduces solvency regulatory model of the major developed countries, and compares the regulatory of China with foreign regulatory models, to emphasize the importance of the solvency in the insurance regulation. The fourth chapter introduce the basic ideas and the specific classification of research method which this article selected, as the theoretical basis of empirical research. In this article, the choices of research methods are Fisher discriminant analysis and disordered multiple logistic regression. The fifth chapter is the most important part and the empirical analysis of this article as well.In article, data from the insurance company annual report information to disclose on its website (2013-2014) and China insurance yearbook in 2014. According to the 2003 China insurance supervision commission issued "on the insurance company solvency amount and regulatory indicators management stipulation", considering the common effect of insurance companies and life insurance companies, choosing 12 indexes of solvency regulation, calculates the concrete data, recognition of assets and recognized liabilities is particularly important. In order to simplify indicators, to eliminate co linearity influence on the results of the study, through the principal component analysis and factor analysis to extract the five common factor which is closely related to the solvent. According to the requirement of discriminant analysis and logistic regression to the dependent variable, the solvency adequacy ratio is less than 500% assignment is 1, the solvency adequacy ratio is between 500% and 1000% assigned to 2, the solvency adequacy ratio assignment 3 is greater than 1000%. In the process of discriminant analysis, through the check out two smaller relation with solvency indicator, discriminant analysis results:In the comprehensive insurance companies, insurance company of general accounted for 70%; insurance company of good accounted for 15.7%; insurance company of very good accounted for 14.3%;In the professional insurance companies, insurance company of general accounted for 83.8%; insurance company of good accounted for 10.8%; insurance company of very good accounted for 5.4%, was sentenced to a rate of 83.4%. In the process of logistic regression, the final two common factors are determined, the category 1 sets as a reference, to classify the sample. Logistic regression results:In the comprehensive insurance companies, insurance company of general accounted for 81.4%; insurance company of good accounted for 2.9%; insurance company of very good accounted for 15.7%; In the professional insurance companies, insurance company of general, accounted for 97.3%; insurance company of very good accounted for 2.7%, was sentenced to a rate of 87.9%.The same conclusion is obtained by discriminant analysis and logistic regression:-comprehensive insurance company solvency is better than professional insurance company, and is sentenced to rate is very high. But at an early stage when it classifies the solvency of insurance companies, the lines of category 2 need to do further adjustment. According to the obtained conclusions are proposed:CIRC may be appropriately to strengthen professional insurance company solvency regulation, at the same time, the insurance company should according to oneself circumstance, reasonable adjustment of the business, reasonable prediction the will face risk, prompting the company can be healthy and long-term development. Through the inspection found that logistic regression fits in this paper, the classification of the samples, just for this article, but these conclusions do not have universality. This article is aimed at a comprehensive and professional insurance company solvency analysis of an attempt to study, there are lots of problems need to be further in-depth research and discussion. As the high rate, whether discriminant analysis and logistic regression is used to predict aspects of insurance company solvency, should also be discussed in detail. This part then introduce the solvency regulation model of major developed countries... |
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