Research On Game Behavior Of Investors In Stock Market

A short bull market of our country began at about November 2014 once again, but by the end of May 2015 it began to go down. Shanghai index once fell about 2600 points. Repeating history emphasize that exploring the long-term stable development of the market should be the subject of many scholars to study. So this paper research on the stock market. From analysis of the game behavior of investors, expectantly we can look ways to balance the market. Using stock price volatility and market influence as two dimensions to classify the investors in stock market, we divide them into game and then look for theirs payment function. The participants of the game are investors, so the role of the government is to regulate the external environment of the game and to impact expectations of the stock market.The first part is literature review. From stock price volatility, participants’ divide in market and games of them, the option game theory as aspects, this paper study domestic and foreign literature and then overview. The first dimension refer to the option game theory method used to view volatility value of stock price. Uncertainty has valuation is central idea of the option game theory combined with analysis method of investment project under uncertainty. This paper studies fluctuation value of stock price. From all kinds of game of the stock market, a variety of different types of game scenarios, we lead to the idea. This paper has studied the influence of investors in stock market, in order to explore the internal balance of game investors.The second chapter, we explore the investors’ payment under the volatility value and the market influence of investors. This paper applies the idea of option game to review the value of fluctuation in stock price, and derive the process of theoretical derivation. Draw lessons from the factor analysis method of investment environment, we review the market influence of investors then to classify investors. That is to avoid connection in number adopting such two completely different methods to evaluate the two dimensions of the criteria for the division of investors. There is no connection between the two dimensions of the measurement avoiding bring about a certain correlation in the evaluation of the data. The index of the two dimensions, investors are divided into influential value investors, influential market investors, no influence of value investors and no influence of market investors, and give the general form of their payoff functions, based on analysis the behavior of investors.The third chapter, the government regulating of the environment of the game, gives the guidance of market signals, theoretical derivation of the four types of investor in game. The influence of the government reflects on the game external environment as well as the leading edge of the participants in the game. This paper analysis the conditions in which the market will come into balance during the game. This article at first writes the government regulation of the market, supervision of the market and other aspects of the external environment of the game. Second we analyses selection strategies of the four categories of investors in the game. Finally supposed the government gives a positive signal, we give the specific market into the game under various market conditions of game participants value function, then draw the game tree and give the payment matrix. Analyses market equilibrium, discussing conditions in order to reach and stability of those equilibriums.The fourth chapter, we select the Shanghai index, GEM, three stocks on the game analysis process to verify. The empirical results show that the whole theory is valid and there is such similar game between investors and investors in the market. Thus give us enlightenment, this paper argues that the government should better take methods on the external environment on regulating the market, and establish a sound market signal transduction mechanism, which makes equilibriums the game to guide the stock market go down on a long-term, healthy and stable development way.The paper still has problems in many aspects, due to objective conditions, also because of the limitation by our own time and energy. In the future we can improve this paper from the information collection, game participants payment function, no perfect information of the game and so on.