Capital-biased Technology Progress And Productivity Growth Path In The Middle-income Stage Of China

China has successfully crossed the "poverty trap" and entered the middle-income stage in 2001, the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the intensification of capital deepening have posed a threat to the sustained growth of the economy. Changing the existing extensive economic growth mode, deepening the reform of the system, adjusting industrial structure from factor driving to innovation driving, achieve the technology as the main driving force of the productivity growth path is the key of across the "middle-income trap".Firstly, the paper constructs a constant elasticity CES production function to estimate the elasticity of substitution and the density of capital in the seven regions based on the two sample intervals of 1978-2014 and 2001-2014. On this basis, this paper calculates the direction of technical progress in each area. The results show that the capital and labor is a complementary relationship, and technical progress is biased to capital.Next, this paper analyzes the trend of capital deepening, and examines the effect of capital re-allocation on capital productivity in different regions. As the result, the faster capital deepening the lower productivity, so the stock capital should flow from capital surplus to less capital accumulation. In order to further explore the impact of biased technical progress on capital productivity, the paper uses PCSE and FGLS methods to carry out the empirical test. The conclusion is that the biased technical progress index is positively related to the capital productivity, and the factor structure is negatively related to the capital productivity.Then, the paper researches the effect of capital-biased technology progress on total factor productivity The CES production function method is used to decompose the rate of productivity growth into the factor input contribution rate and total factor productivity growth rate. Furthermore, TFP growth rate is decomposed as the efficiency of labor growth rate effect, the efficiency of capital growth rate effect, the coupling effect of biased technology and technical structure, and the coupling effect of biased technology progress and structural elements. This paper analyzes the contribution of the four effects to the growth rate of TFP, and finds that although the total factor productivity is increasing, the growth rate has a downward trend. Adjust technical structure, improve capital efficiency and maintain the stable growth of total factor productivity, to realize the new growth mode led by technical progress.Finally, to further explore the path of productivity growth, the paper constructs a technical structure index, using the panel data of each region to carry on the empirical test. The results show that the biased capital technical progress will not only directly affect the output, but also indirectly affect the productivity through the technical structure, as the meanwhile, the independent research and development is more beneficial to the growth of productivity.