| The financial crisis will happen to the world economy and the normal operation of the international financial played a different degree of damage.Financial crisis not only affect economic crisis countries, will also spread to the world, eventually trigger a heavy price.In some countries a review of the history to prove financial crisis cost is huge, therefore, in order to guarantee steady and rapid economic growth, avoid financial crisis can be identify by the crisis early warning signs of the crisis, for the government to take corresponding measures to deal with before.This article selects the 21 indicators to construct financial crisis early warning index system of early warning, and combining the KLR signal analysis and granger causality test, preliminary screening of early warning indicators, ultimately selected out eight early warning indicators, the eight indexes by the two methods of early-warning index screening.This paper first constructs the binary Logit model, the model on financial crisis prediction effect.Secondly, the binary Logit model of stationary phase is divided into new stable period and recovery period, the time division of more fine, on the basis of building up ternary Logit model.Will build a model to compare the two, three yuan, draw the conclusion:the ternary model of early warning effect is better than dual model.Finally, with the ARIMA model to the September 2015-December 2016 for predicting the early warning index, the index prediction in ternary Logit model eventually come to the early warning result:in September 2015-December 2016 China smaller probability of financial crisis, the financial risk is smaller.Nowadays, our country’s economy is facing various challenge and impact come from both at home and abroad, therefore, the crisis consciousness, improve the ability of early warning to ensure that financial security is important, so should actively establish the financial crisis early warning mechanism which accords with the situation of China. |
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