ST Enterprise Survival Analysis Research In China’s Listed Companies

From the beginning of 1990 s, with the reform of the supervision enterprise system, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange set up, due to various reasons, many listed companies have a continuous loss of the situation, faced with the plight of the business. In order to strengthen the supervision of listed companies, ST(enterprise special treatment)as China’s unique system, issued on April 22,1998. In this paper,we focus on the problem of ST enterprise’s survival time. Generally speaking, If an abnormal condition occurs in a listed companies, after special treatment is carried out,the future survival state have two possibilities, including hat and delisting.This paper study the regular of ST companies which will pick a hat or be delisted by survival analysis, and analysis the influencing factors of the two types of events.Survival analysis is a statistical method for the study of censored data.The selected indicators in this paper are as follows: ST enterprise’s financial indicators and equity concentration. In the rules analysis of the ST companies happened to pick a hat or delisting, we use non parametric method of survival analysis, mainly the life table method; In the analysis of the relevant factors, the use of the semi parametric method of survival analysis, that is the Cox proportional hazard model.Empirical study results show: picking the cap events occur mainly in the be ST after one or two years, this is the time to pick a hat happened regularly. Factors that affect to pick a cap on the overall performance are: asset liability ratio, total assets,earnings per share and stock turnover rate. From ST companies are implementing special processing of different reasons to see :when the cause of listed companies which are implemented ST is that the audit results show two recent accounting year net profit of all negative, the factors influencing the ST companies realize pick cap for the asset liability ratio, total assets, inventory turnover rate, operating profit growth rate;When the cause of listed companies are implemented ST is that net assets per share is lower than the stock value, the factors influencing enterprise realize to pick a hat of asset liability ratio, current ratio, sales net interest rate, operating cash flow per share, total assets turnover, net profit growth rate,the degree of concentration of ownership;When the cause of listed companies are implemented ST is that the auditing reports issued by certified public accountants can not effectively, the factors influencing enterprise realize to pick a hat of sales net interest rate, operating cashflow per share; When the the cause of listed companies are implemented ST is that the companies loss in recent two years, the factors influencing the enterprise realize to pick a hat of asset liability ratio and liquidity ratio, return on equity, earnings per share, the growth rate of total assets;When other abnormal conditions, influence factors of ST companies realize pick cap is asset-liability ratio, total assets and earnings per share.Empirical analysis of the delisting event results: ST company delisting event occurs the highest probability of time, is in its third years after the ST, which is the time of the occurrence of the time of delisting.The reason for the impact of ST enterprises delisting event is: net assets per share.When net assets per share is too low,ST companies are likely to be more likely to withdraw from the market.In this paper, the survival analysis method, which is widely used in the field of medical research, is introduced into the research of the economic field, the empirical results, on the condition of ST companies reasonable analysis, put forward policy suggestions to improve the company’s business, the ST companies realize to pick a hat as soon as possible and avoid delisting.