Research On Risk Management Of P2P Network Lending Platform Based On Survival Analysis

The P2P network lending platform is an important part of China’s financial industry.Since the introduction of legal documents by the state in the P2P online lending industry in 2014,it has always attached great importance to the development of the industry.As the market becomes more open and the traditional financial industry lending review becomes more stringent,the advantages of the P2P network platform are gradually revealed.Its operation process is simple and efficient,and the application qualification is not high,which is favored by the majority of users.However,since the industry entered China,there have been ongoing risk events involving thousands of online lending platform companies and millions of investment users,and the market panic has been heating up.In 2018,the P2P network lending platform frequently erupted,and the lenders suffered heavy losses.Therefore,it is of practical significance to conduct in-depth research on the risks of the P2P network lending platform.This thesis takes the risk of domestic P2P network lending platform as the research object,draws on the research results of predecessors,and uses literature research method,qualitative and quantitative combination method and survival analysis method to divide the variables that can be obtained by each platform into four aspects,including platform.Characteristics,risk protection measures,regional economy and user evaluation,to carry out risk factor hypothesis analysis,based on survival analysis theory to construct the Cox proportional hazard survival model of P2P network lending platform,and carry out correlation analysis,Cox proportional hazard hypothesis test,The goodness test and the accuracy test of the model extract the risk factors that will have a significant impact on the normal operation of the P2P network lending platform,and derive the expression of the survival function.The research results show that the average reference rate of return,registered capital,platform background,platform fee,bank depository and urban GDP of the online lending platform are protection factors,which are negatively correlated with platform risk;financial institution loan balance is risk factor,and platform risk is positive Related.Based on the significant factors,the survival curve of the online loan platform is obtained to reflect the change of the platform survival rate with time,to find out the time point of the sudden drop in the survival rate,and to find the time before the 25 th and 55 th months.Focus on the risk prevention measures in advance.Finally,the policy recommendations to reduce the risk of the platform are proposed to promote the sustainable development of the online loan industry.