The Research On Credit Risk Measurement Of Local Government Financing Platform

In recent years, China has constantly promoting the urbanization process, the local government municipal construction task also presents the growth, thus make the local finance income cannot meet the demand of local construction. Local governments’ revenue can not increase in a short period of time, so local governments will have to meet the demand of their own funds through debt financing, but the budget law of the People’s Republic of China specified "unless it is otherwise prescribed by law and the state council, local governments may not issue local government bonds", this means that countries from the aspect of legal system on expressly prohibit the local governments to issue bonds, the government can’t be issued by local government debt to make up for the inadequacy of its construction funds.In order to circumvent the requirements of laws and regulations to speed up the local economic development, at the same time promote the urbanization process,effectively alleviate the problem of insufficient funds, instead of local government, to set up local government financing platform.Local government financing platform is set up for the convenience of marketization of government financing, it in the name of the local government in the capital market to direct and indirect financing, essentially belongs to the government and local government financing platform.The establishment of local government financing platform for the local municipal construction raised money at the same time also to expand the domestic demand of China’s economic growth, especially in 2008, the us subprime mortgage crisis sweeping the world to China’s exports bring great impact after our government launched four trillion rescue plan, the government financing platform obtained the rapid development of our country played a important role in the economic recovery. Although the government financing platform in alleviating municipal construction fund shortage of local government played an important role in stimulating domestic demand to promote economic development,but also should pay attention to the government financing platform in the existing credit risk to the safety of the operation of the local economy, sustainable and adverse impact on the stability of the society.This article selects the chongqing local government financing platform as the research object, first using ARIMA model to the chongqing local fiscal revenue data has carried on the short-term forecast, secondly by modified KMV model to the chongqing government financing platform under different loan levels expected calculates the probability of default, find out the margin of safety of the chongqing municipal government financing platform loans, finally through to our country current situation and existing problems of local government financing platform and deep insight into the conclusion of empirical research, the corresponding credit risk prevention management advice.