Research Of Credit Risk On Shanghai Local Government Financing Platform Abstract

In recent years, Shanghai local government investment financing platform credit risk has received extensive attention. Shanghai municipal government financing platform debt growth faster, part of the district and town debt burden is heavy, government debt on the land transfer income to a higher degree of dependence, part of the district and the town and its operation is not standard, lack of supervision and other issues. At present, risk assessment of the government financing platform is conceptual. Therefore, this paper first analyzes the development and status of Shanghai local government financing platform and introduce the use of PEST model analysis. Secondly, this paper explores the causes of local government financing platform, the Shanghai local government financing platform is the fruit of Shanghai chemical industry product, the asymmetry of financial authority and powers and legal constraints, the supporting policies of the financial crisis, banks can loan funds promote its rapid development, and the introduction of the game theory model discusses the local government in the game with the central government in a dominant position, this advantage is intrinsic motivation of the expansion of local government financing platform. Again, this paper analyzes the impact of credit risk of local government financing platform, including financial risk, land market risk and bank credit risk, and may even lead to economic and financial crisis. Then, in this paper, the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, selected the Shanghai local government financing platform of the sample data analysis, improved and optimized the traditional KMV model, prediction and scientific calculation of the Shanghai local government financing platform credit risk. Finally, this paper after a thorough analysis of the Shanghai municipal government financing platform credit risk origin based on the proposed a series of pin to pin the risk management measures, gives the theoretical analysis of the practical significance.