Information Model Of Construction And Research For Adapting To Climate Change In Beijing City

This paper mainly studies the sensitivity of industry economy to the change of meteorological conditions,and then we construct a decision support system for adapting to climate change in which it contains three parts, such as model base,data base and knowledge base.For the purpose of sensitivity analysis, based on 12 years (2002-2013) of economic data and historical weather observations,this paper analyzes the sensitivity of industry economy to the changes of meteorological factors. By improving an econometric model, Cobb-Douglas (C-D) production function, the quantitatively causal relationship is established between meteorological factors and industry economy. Ridge regression model is employed to implement the process of sensitivity analysis between meteorological factors and industry economy of Beijing. As a result, sensitivity ranking of Beijing industry economy is obtained, three among which are hypersensitive, including construction industry, wholesale and retail trade, and financial industry. Agriculture, however, is least sensitive. The sensitivity ranking, from highest to lowest, is, respectively, construction industry (0.4995), wholesale and retail trade (0.4176), financial industry (0.2933), transportation, warehousing and postal services (0.2806), industry (0.2799), accommodation and catering industry (0.2710), health and social security and welfare (0.2691), cultural and sports and entertainment industry (0.2607),agriculture (0.2537). The sensitivity analysis between industry economy and meteorological factors is helpful for the government of Beijing to understand the impacts and thus to reasonably carry out industrial restructuring and optimize resource pattern. The research indicates that the results by ridge regression are more in keeping with the local economic development in Beijing.Decision Support System for adapting to climate change in Beijing is composed of a model base of disaster prediction and early warning, a database bosed on sensitivity analysis and knowledge base of adaptation to climate change in Beijing. In addition, Bootstrap front-end framework,Laravel back-end framework,open source programs of visualization are applied to the decision support system architecture.aiming at achieving the purpose of optimizing the system structure and enhancingusers experience.