Analysis On Factors And Countermeasures Of Commercial Bank Loan Risk Under The New Economic Situation

In recent years, the risk of commercial bank loans continue to increase, with Chinese economy in the new situation, that’s, both balance and ratio of non-performing loans have been increasing, and asset quality of banking industry in Shandong Province is worse. The new situation has brought new influence factors to the risk of commercial bank loan, which makes banks not stay on the traditional risk control level, but find these new factors and take effective measures so that banks can control the risk of loans better.The theoretical analysis in the paper mainly comprises the information asymmetry theory, the principal-agent theory and credit rationing theory. The theory of information asymmetry is one of the most important theories in the theory of loan risk, as the risk of bank loan is largely determined by the degree of information asymmetry between the bank and the borrower.Commercial bank loan risk is mainly reflected in the non-performing loans. Afterintroducing the specific performance types of commercial bank loan risk, we analyzethe present situation of the non-performing loans in China’s commercial bank, includingthe balance and ratio of non-performing loans, and the distribution of non-performingloans. Then we analyze the current situation of the non-performing loans of commercial banks in Shandong Province, including its vertical comparison and horizontalcomparison with other provinces, and the main reasons for the increase of loan risk ofcommercial banks in Shandong Province.It is the key point to our research the qualitative and quantitative analysis of factors influencing the loan risk of commercial bank. The former analyzes the impact of the new economic situation, commercial bank and borrowers on commercial bank loan risk. The latter is based on the quarterly data of commercial bank, industry and GDP in Shandong province from 2006 to 2014. We use co-integration test to analyze the long-term impact factors of loan risk, and establish the error correction model to explore the short-term equilibrium deviation from the long-run equilibrium, from which we conclude the consistency of long term and short term effects. Meantime, we find that the increase in the income of enterprises in our province can not improve enterprise management, while the increase in corporate profits, caused by reduction of production costs or other reasons, can effectively reduce the balance of non-performing loans in commercial banks, which verifies the importance of enterprise cost saving and intensive managementFinally, we analyzes the prevention countermeasures of Chinese commercial bank loan risk under new situation, from three angles of commercial banks, borrowers and the government supervision department, according to the analysis results of the factors affecting the risk of bank loans. The prevention countermeasures of loan risk from the aspect of commercial banks include perfecting the credit system and organization management, paying attention to the management of the stock of loans and incremental loans, improving the credit structure, strengthening communication not only between bank and enterprise but among banks, training high quality credit personnel and improve the measurement tool of credit risk. The prevention countermeasures of loan risk from the aspect of borrowers include broadening the financing channels, using funds rationally, promoting industrial restructuring, and improving the sense of good faith and credit level. And the prevention countermeasures of loan risk from the aspect of government supervision department include perfecting the laws and regulations, establishing the credit system covering the whole society, improving the information exchange platform between banks, promoting the implementation of the loan insurance system and the enterprise bankruptcy relief system, conforming to the transformation of economic development mode and supporting the transformation and upgrading of enterprises. We hope to build a solid barrier to prevent the risk of commercial bank loans, which is the purpose of our study, also the ultimate goal.