An Empirical Analysis Of Loan Risk Influencing Factors Of Shaxian Rural Commercial Bank

In 2017,China's GDP growth rate of 6.9%has achieved its first increase during seven years.The economy seems to be beginning to revive,but the economy is still in a doldrums due to the impact of earlier macroeconomic regulation and control.In particular,it is worth mentioning that the policy of 4 trillion days of credit delivery in 2009 made a large number of loans flow into the real estate industry,and the real estate industry is now subject to severe macro-control,and many enterprises are inextricably linked to the real estate industry.As a result,many enterprises are struggling,the phenomenon of loan defaults continues to increase,and the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks continues to rise.If measures are not taken in time,The transformation of management strategy will inevitably affect the healthy and sustainable development of commercial banks in the future,even lead to systemic financial risks and impact on the social real economy.Shaxian Rural Commercial Bank is one of the main suppliers of developing local rural finance.Its credit risk status and credit risk control ability are not only related to the profit,asset quality and sustainable development of agricultural and commercial banks in Shaxian.It will also affect the supply ability of rural finance and the effect of supporting agriculture to local rural finance.From 2013 to 2016,the agricultural and commercial banks in Shaxian have higher non-performing loans and higher assets.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the credit risk of agricultural and commercial banks in Shaxian,not only to control the credit risk,but also to realize the healthy and sustainable development of their own institutions.It is also of great significance to alleviate the financial repression of rural financial market and promote the development of local rural economy and rural finance in Shaxian area.Based on the background and significance of the research,this paper takes the agricultural and commercial firms in Shaxian as an example to explore the macroeconomic environment in depth.The influence of various factors,such as borrower and rural financial institution internal control system,on credit risk.Therefore,the main text of this paper first makes a systematic exposition on the theory of credit risk of commercial bank.Secondly,it makes a systematic exposition on the credit of agricultural and commercial bank in Shaxian.The present situation and causes of risk are analyzed.The causes of credit risk are mainly divided into external reasons and internal reasons.The external causes mainly include the macroeconomic downturn,the deterioration of the financial ecological environment and the complex guarantee chain between enterprises.Internal reasons mainly include imperfect corporate governance structure.Then,this paper uses the multiple linear regression model to find out the significant factors affecting the credit risk,and applies the analytic hierarchy process.The fuzzy mathematics method is used to comprehensively evaluate the credit risk control system of agricultural and commercial banks in Shaxian.Finally,some policy suggestions are put forward in order to reduce the non-performing loan rate of agricultural and commercial banks in Shaxian,improve the level of asset management,and promote the local rural economy.The healthy and sustainable development of rural finance.