A Research On The Application Of Credit/GDF Index Tools In China’s Macro Prudential Supervision

In recent years, the deepening financial frequent fluctuations in the market, then which has bring the result of more risk. With the booms and volatility of credit, the probability of risk in the financial system increase gradually. Financial crisis on developing countries bring huge damage to the economy. academic circles and the authorities should create and implement an efficient and accurate macro-prudential regulation framework,in order to control systemic risk and reduce the harm of the financial crisis,in order to the healthy development of the financial system, the underlying systemic risk of financial system must be test and control, fundamentally overcome the pro-cyclical financial system and regulation. To achieve this purpose, this article first systematic analyze the crisis theory, and build indicator frame to test the financial risk and the anchoring of the evaluation index of the basket. Finally, the ROC curve were used to detect alternative indicators of sensitivity and contribution of macro-prudential regulation, ultimately achieve the goal of prevent and dissolve the systemic risks.Research results show that the generalized credit/gap, special credit/gap, the RMB nominal effective exchange rate index, macroeconomic leading indicators for macro-prudential regulation policy, import growth has good discriminate ability, can be as an alternative tool for macro-prudential regulation policy to assist the provision of countercyclical capital buffers.