Risk Analysis Of The Internationalization Of RMB

The prominence of drawbacks of dollar-centered international monetary system make the RMB internationalization become China’s important strategic in the new normal stage. Both theoretical research and historical experience have shown that RMB internationalization will face risks from all sides. So it is necessary to study risks systematically and in detail, so as to prevent, detect and control risks, which has strategic significance to the success of RMB internationalization and China’s health and stable financial system.Article divides risks into monetary competition, monetary policy constraints and economic and financial stability based on combing the present situation of RMB internationalization and existing research results, reseaching the internal transmission mechanism of risks through normative analysis, establish theoretical models and use empirical analysis to verify them. Finally, summarize the historical experience of risk control in the process of internationalization of dollar, Euro and Yen and AIIB, exchange rate reform, puts forward risk management concept and policy advice of RMB internationalization.The article is divided into seven chapters:chapter 1 is introduction, including research background, purpose, idea and method, summarizing existing papers and puting forward deficiency; chapter 2 describes the status of RMB internationalisation, briefly describes the risk classification and the factors influencing the degree of risk; chapter 3,4 and 5 respectively analyze monetary competition, monetary policy constraints and economic and financial stability risks; chapter 6 is historical reference of internationalization of dollar, Euro and Yen and enlightenment to RMB; chapter 7 is risk control policy suggestions to the next phase of RMB internationalization according to the conclusion of the above four chapters.Through theoretical model and empirical analysis, the article draws following conclusions: first, the monopoly of the dollar is one of the important obstacles of RMB internationalization. RMB is still not a confrontation with us dollar now in east Asia; second, exchange rate and the expectation of exchange rate is the major channel for assets choice behavior of economic entity to weaken independence of monetary policy. Central bank efforts to seek balance in "ternary paradox"; third, the influence from international capital flows to the stability of the economic has two sides, impact or moderate output and price level under different external conditions.