The Analysis Of The Relationship Between Monetary Policy Stance And Bank Risk-taking

Similar to other countries,in a series of measures that China's response to the financial crisis,to achieve steady and rapid economic development,the implementation of monetary policy will no doubt occupies a pivotal position.In recent years,the people's bank of China implemented prudent monetary policy and synthetically and alternately used quantity and price tool and macro-prudential policy tools in accordance with the unified arrangements of the state council,around to keep overall price levels basically stable which is the priority of the macroeconomic regulation and control.However,the experience of financial crisis has shown that in the case that financial and macroeconomic are unstable,the price stability is no use.So,If China's monetary policy target should be explicitly included in the financial stability?A growing body of research shows that monetary policy is about financial stability,the close association of monetary policy and financial stability has also been incorporated into the policy field.People begin to reflect on the coverage of the monetary policy goals,to re-examine the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.This article will confirm the key role of monetary policy to financial stability through analysis of the relationship between monetary policy stance and bank risk-taking.The link of monetary policy stance and bank risk-taking,named as the risk-taking channel of monetary policy,is refers to that the changes of monetary policy stance will affect the risk perception and risk tolerance of financial intermediary,and affect the level of the portfolio risk,asset pricing and the price and non-price terms of financing.The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between the monetary policy stance and bank risk-taking.We base on the economic and financial data from 1998 to 2015,use the data of China's 44 listed banks which have listed for more than threse years,and use the random effects model and dynamic panel system of generalized moment method,verified that monetary policy stance significantly affect bank risk-taking,and influenced by the market structure and the characteristics of commercial bank balance sheets.It shows that from the perspective of financial stability,monetary policy is not neutral,China's monetary policy should be incorporated into macro-prudential regulation framework,face to the role of financial intermediary in the monetary policy transmission channels,strengthen the coordination with regulation policy,in order to effectively cope with the accumulation of financial imbalances,and promote economic and financial stability.From behavioral perspective,focusing on the influence of monetary policy on bank risk-taking becomes the key to avoid repeating the mistakes of the financial crisis,reviewing the monetary policy transmission mechanism,reshaping the bank role and reconstructing monetary policy target are necessary.There are two contributions of this paper:first,we calculated and adopted loan loss reserve/gross loans that can better reflect the will of bank risk-taking as a risk measure,at the same time,thinking that the reflect of bank's risk exposure to changes of macroeconomic regulation and control has obvious hysteresis,we introduce the risk variable of one lag period and two lags period as the endogenous variable of the model;Second,for the calculation of monetary policy stance,we adopt the method of fitting Taylor rule,calculate the interest rate by comparing the real interest rate and the rules of the Taylor rule,measure monetary policy stance by taking the difference,so as to be able to get the interest rate spreads variables that can reflect the tightness of rate policy sensitively and can act as proxy variable of policy,and reduce the endogenous in a certain extent.