Study On CNY Exchange Rate On China To Asean Bilateral Trade Of Spatial Spillover Effects

From 2000 to 2014, Great changes had taken place between China and the The Asean, As China and The Asean economic integration Constantly push forward, China and The Asean Contact more and more closely, even said that they are a common destiny. The development of CN Y internationalization, Study the effect of the China-the Asean bilateral exchange rate on bilateral trade, on the one hand, makes the sustainable healthy development of relations between China and the Asean, on the other hand, can help the CNY become a key currency in the association of south-east Asian nations (the Asean), at the same time, it will accelerate the process of CNY internationalization.According to the previous information, the author first reviews combed the related theory, then analysis the China-the Asean bilateral exchange rate and the bilateral trade from2000-2014, Based on 2000-2014, bilateral exchange rate between China and the Asean countries, bilateral trade, GDP and per capita income data of the Asean countries, constructed geographical spatial weight matrix In line with the actual conditions of China association of south-east Asian nations (the Asean), Through test to select fixed space, time, random effects of Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Then, the author improved spatial econometric analysis. Set "geographic and economic" spatial weight matrix, and test the China-the Asean bilateral exchange rate and the bilateral trade. Finally chose the two-way fixed effects of Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), Test results showed that:(1) There exists negative spatial spillover effect, also there exists spatial spillover effects in the Asean countries to China’s net exports., Showing that among Asean countries in their trade of our country exists both competitive and complementary. In future we can continue to strengthen the trade cooperation of China and the Asean, and Asean countries. (2) the CNY exchange rate changes on the influence of the China-Asean net exports, The results show that:The CNY exchange rate rise namely depreciation, Asean countries on China’s net exports will be reduced, Cheap against the Asean countries would inhibit the Asean countries to China’s net exports; However, increased levels of namely depreciation of CNY exchange rate, Asean countries to the adjacent countries in net exports maybe reduced or maybe increased, This suggests that the CNY exchange rate on the the bilateral trade between China and the Asean is not spatial spillover effects, So that the CNY exchange rate depreciation will not necessarily improve the trade between China and the Asean, This maybe because the current CNY exchange rate is not real market exchange rates, This reflects the special economic relationship among Asean countries.In conclusion we can find that, Asean countries to China exist trade complementary and trade competition, And, in three kinds of factors affecting import and export,the currency impact is the largest on import and export of China-Asean. Therefore, the author put forward the following Suggestions:Using spatial spillover effect and structure of the CNY exchange rate policy,to improve the trade between China and the association of south-east Asian nations (Asean); Continue to expand the circulation in asean countries, To promote the general breadth of CNY in the Asean. Fully considering the weight of various currencies in the CNY’s exchange rate basket.