RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations,Neighboring Countries Effects And Bilateral Trades Between China And Asean Countries

China and ASEAN countries opened a new chapter in their relations with the establishment of dialogue relations in 1991.Trade in particular,which China has become ASEAN's largest trading partner.With rapid economic growth and quickening paces of regional economic integration,ASEAN's centrality role in the regional cooperation has been growing.Also,China has strengthened its economic cooperation with ASEAN countries to promote the joint-construction of the'Belt and Road'initiative.These achievements provide new opportunity for the bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN countries.Strengthening bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN countries serves the common interests of both sides and is the joint responsibility of both sides as well.On the basic of international trade and international exchange theories,this paper makes a comprehensive study of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries.By using the method of spatial econometric model,this paper analyzes the impact of the neighboring-country effect and the fluctuation of RMB bilateral exchange rate on bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries.The main results are as follows:Firstly,the economic development level of importing countries is the main factor affecting bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries.Secondly,the fluctuation of RMB bilateral exchange rate has a positive impact on the export trade between China and ASEAN countries.That is in direct quotation,the depreciation of RMB gives an advantage to China's exports.The fluctuation of RMB bilateral exchange rate also impact bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries.Thirdly,the fluctuation of RMB bilateral exchange rate has more impact on China's export trade with ASEAN countries,and less impact on China's import trade with ASEAN countries.Fourthly,there exist positive neighboring-country trade effect between China and ASEAN countries,which indicates that the growth of bilateral trade between China and a certain country will also promote the bilateral trade with its neighboring countries.This result conforms to the principle as well as benefit to the establishment of China-ASEAN community of destiny.Finally,there exist negative neighboring-country exchange rate effect between China's export trade and ASEAN countries with a positive impact in the lag period.There exists positive neighboring-country exchange rate effect between China's import trade and ASEAN countries.