| Natural gas is kind of fossil energy, which is low carbon and with rich reserves. It is a feasible choice for every country to deal with the severe energy situation and climate environment and transform into a low-carbon economy. In recent years, the success of shale gas revolution makes a huge impact on North America natural gas market, and makes differences on main natural gas market features among different regions in the world. At the same time, the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) increases the liquidity of international natural gas market, and promotes the global market integration. Under the new international natural gas market environment, laws of natural gas price and trade are changing complicatedly, and influence on China’s natural gas market development strategy. In the circumstances, we should analyze deeply on the dynamic law and spatial feature of international natural gas market, and master the regulation of price fluctuation and evolution trend of trade pattern, which will help us know more about the new order of international natural gas market. Moreover, it could help us generate reasonable natural gas pricing mechanism and trading tactics, and giving policy advice on promoting the process of China’s natural gas marketization.In this thesis, we mainly focus on the price and trade of international natural gas market, utilize time series analysis and spatial econometrics, and carry out research on the relationship between oil price and natural gas price and the driving mechanism of natural gas trade. On this basis, we explore how the change of international natural gas market features affects China’s natural gas market, and make specific suggestions on China’s natural gas market development further. The main research contents and conclusions are:(1) With dynamic modeling thoughts, we research on the dynamic changing law between international oil prices and natural gas prices represented by the North America market. We take exogenous factors like speculation, inventory, weather into consideration, and use state space model and Markov regime switching model to study on the comovement of oil prices and natural gas prices. The results indicate that after the shale gas revolution, the relationship between oil and gas prices of North America presents weaker gradually showing a trend of "decoupling". There is no long-term cointegration between oil prices and natural gas prices, while there is a dynamic equilibrium with the development of the market. Under the market-oriented pricing mechanism, natural gas market price is easily influenced by many factors like supply and demand, speculation, weather and so on.(2) Focusing on the trading volume, we use the gravity model to multiply study on the influential factors of global LNG trade, and we arrange the factors by dividing dimensions. We deeply analyze the spatial differences of the influential factors and compare the factors in different stages. The empirical results show that economy, supply and demand, price, energy structure, trade feasibility, political environment all have effects on trading volume to some degree. Compared with global LNG trade, the trade in Asia is more sensitive to importing country’s economic scale and trading price, but less sensitive to pipeline gas importing volume. As time goes on. the volumes of LNG trade are easier to be affected by LNG importing price, language, political risk than before.(3) Based on the research about price and trade features of international natural gas market, we analyze how the changes of international natural gas market affect China’s natural gas market. We combine the development tendency of international natural gas market and China’s current situation, and propose pertinent suggestions on China’s natural gas pricing mechanism, construction of natural gas market and trading strategies. |
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