| The real estate in our country was developed late,and the healthy development of the market still needs the government to regulate and control. Governments can change the interest rate level to control the real estate market because the interest rate in China does not fully market-oriented. What are the effects of interest rate changes on the demand and prices in the real estate market? Because of the time required for the occurrence of changes in supply is longer than demand and prices,so I will not consider it in this paper. China’s real estate market is showing obvious regional differences,whether the effects of changes in interest rates on the real estate market demand and prices also has obvious regional differences? On the other hand, this paper selects incremental housing market for the study, which would make the conclusion more targeted. Interest rates have an impact on the cost of purchase,housing investment income,market expectations.These factors become conduction channels:interest rates affect housing demand and incremental rates.First,partition China‘s 35 large and medium cities in the real estate market by using cluster analysis,then did the impulse response to find an error rate changes have how much impact on the incremental housing demand and housing prices based on the vector auto regression mode with every representatives of various cities is created,and then determine the impact of changes in interest rates on the housing market each incremental region. The empirical results prove that house price reflected very obvious regional differences to the changes in interest rates,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Fujian impulse response function manifested magnitude larger than Nanchang,Wuhan.Compared to house prices,the regional differentiation is not obvious of housing demand to changes in interest rates. There are two reasons, on the one hand it is due to the factors and environment causing the change of housing price is more complex than the factors and environment causing the change of incremental housing,and the housing price is more sensitive to housing incremental while the interest rates changed,on the other hand, it is the incremental housing market of Shang Hai,GuangZhou and XiaMen regulated market supply and demand better than WuHan and NanChang, Interest rates affect the magnitude of Shanghai’ housing prices in Guangzhou and Xiamen amplitude magnitude greater than the rate of Wuhan and Nanchang.This paper propose some policy suggestions based on the above theoretical analysis,empirical test and consider the situation of China’s housing market. Whichcontains make reasonable regional division of the real estate matket and make policy according to local conditions,adjustment regulation measures according to the constitute of housing demand,real estate developers for transformation under the supervision of the government,igorously promote the development of the housing rental market. The policies are mainly focused on the following : make appropriate policy dependent on the situation in various regions,improve the level of the the real estate market to promote steady and healthy development of the the real estate market. |
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