Identification And Estimation On The Systemic Risk Of Shandong Province

After the 2008 global financial crisis triggered by US subprime crisis, the research on systemic risk began to receive widespread attention. a plurality of central government and the Shandong provincial government meeting reports and documents mentioned to strengthen the financial risk monitoring and regulatory coordination, and take comprehensive measures to prevent all kinds of financial risks, firmly hold the bottom line which does not occur regional systemic financial risk. Eventually,with the continuous development of financial markets and the acceleration of opening-up, the impact of systemic risks on the financial security and the real economy of Shandong province will be revealed. Therefore, the accurate identification of Shandong province systemic financial risk factors and establishment of systemic risk warning indicator system, are helpful to the financial system of Shandong province to improve the ability to resist risks, it does have he theoretical and practical significance to ensure financial stability in Shandong province, to promote the healthy and sustainable development of economic theory and practical significance.Firstly, this article defines the core concept of systemic risk, Shandong Province system of financial risk and systemically important financial institutions, to provide a reliable basis for the following system of Shandong Province financial risk identification.Second, recognize the systemic financial risk in Shandong province. Risk factors identified in Shandong Province are government debt of all levels, local legal person bank, the real estate industry, the running status of the over capacity industry, which affect systemic financial risks larger; external shocks, asset prices, changes of national policy and systemically important financial institutions of our nation may affect the operating conditions of external financial system, thereby affecting the stability of the financial system in Shandong Province. Third, estimate the systemic financial risk in Shandong province. Select 17 group quarterly data from 2007 to 2015, such as GDP growth, CPI, and the federal funds rate, using principal component analysis, finding out the quality of bank assets, price level, national policy, government debt and overcapacity having great influence to Shandong Province systemic financial risks. Then make the Shandong Province systemic financial risk index, the financial risk index is able to really reflect the Shandong Province financial risk level. Estimate results show that the financial system in Shandong province is vulnerable to the impact of external shocks, and since theimplementation of the 4-trillion-economic-stimulus plan, the system of financial risk in Shandong province continues to rise. Finally, according to the empirical results, draw the conclusion and put forward relevant suggestions.This article takes Shandong Province as the research object for the first time. in, in the process of risk identification, attempts to analysis the causes of Shandong Province systemic financial risks from the risk of Shandong province and external shocks, provides the reference for guard against systemic risk; trying to measure systemic financial risk of Shandong Province and measure results can fit the actual situation better.