Scenarios Simulation Study Of Built-up Land Change In A Mining City

Mining cities are the main supply of China’s energy and important mineral resources.However, the exploitation of mineral resources is a double-edged sword, which makes economic develop but destroys ecological environment.It makes mining cities faced with the continued worse environmental pollutionin recent years and it is difficult to balance the economic and ecological development. Land is the basic for human survival and development and that is essential to explore ways of land use to make sure sustainable utilization. Therefore, the paper brings in regional land utilization as a breakthrough point. Through constructing a multi-agent model based on land change research and future simulation analysis under different scenarios of urban sprawl, the paper explores the rules of built-up land use change in mining cities, provides guidance for the development of mining cities and balances urban ecological and economic development in order to realize the sustainable development of mining cities.The establishment of land use decision mechanism and scenario analysis is the main content of the research.First of all, toextract land use data as the foundation of research, improved classification method, deletes redundant bands and adds useful information, is used to interpret remote sensing image of study area, Wu’an district. 3 land use classification maps are obtained.Secondly, the decision-making mechanism of land use is analysed to establish MAS model, which can reflect human decision with automatic, heterogeneity and dispersion. It is benefit to clarify the adaptation mechanism of agent on the environment of natural and social economic and it can explain the complex geographic change pattern. In this part,the study selected 3 kinds of agents,including the government, enterprises and residents. According to practical decision-making process, the decision-making process is divided into agents’ perceptionto environment, communication between agents and decision-making. The analysis of 3 partscan help find land use decision rules. Meanwhile, discrete choice modelisconstructed forthe integration of the decision-making process and build-up land use change. This can quantify decision rules.Then, build the MAS model and test the availability of model.Thirdly, according to the MAS model, scenario analysis is carried out in order to reveal cities’ development pattern in future and influence that policy factors makes on land use. It provides the basis for land use management and decision-making. In this part, firstly, according to the "S" shape of city development and extreme land use principle, the paper formulates 2 types of scenarios, the ecological oriented scenario and the economic oriented scenario.Secondly, considering the influence of planning provisions and strategic management policy to enterprises, 2 types of scenarios are subdivided into 8 class scenarios. By ArcGIS software, every scenario in 2020 is simulated, including the number and layout of built-up land.Based on the results of simulation, the paper conducts longitudinal comparison between 2 kinds of oriented scenarios and horizontal contrast among different restriction of policy scenarios.Longitudinal comparison results show that economic oriented scenario is more conducive to ecological oriented scenarioon economic development, but it’s not conducive to the protection of ecological environment. The horizontal comparison results show that consistent of policies action can make built-up land expansion more concentrated, so that urban sprawl direction can correspond to regional urban positioning domain.At last, from the level of development direction, policy oriented level and enterprise development level, the paper provides counter-measures for the regional sustainable land use.