The Real Estate Industry Of Manufacturing The Existence Of "Crowding Out

Since the late 1990s, the government implemented and abolished the welfare housing distribution system, the Chinese real estate market started the prelude to the rapid development. Admittedly, the real estate industry continuely growing had made tremendous contributions for social and economic development, which led to the development of a series of related industrial chain. However, in recent years,the real estate prices of non-rational excessive development is also highly controversial, the real estate high housing prices are far beyond the tolerance range of residents, overinvestment has caused the housing bubble. At the same time, in the period of economic restructuring, the real economy as the main manufacturing industry is facing a severe test, in recent years, such as multiple difficulties, for example the shrinking of the market, rising costs, financing difficulties, under the superposition labor shortages, China’s manufacturing sector continued to decline in profits, part of the export-oriented enterprises had zero profit or even negative profit phenomenon. The contrast at the higher rate of return in booming property market and the lower profits of manufacturing to many manufacturing companies have pulled out funds to invest in real estate, which makes the development of China’s manufacturing industry is more difficult.This paper argues that the sound development of the real estate and manufacturing sectors complement rational development is to ensure sustained economic development imperative. Therefore, this paper attempts to study the correlated mechanism and the mechanism between China’s real estate and the manufacturing to explore real estate in the end there have a "crowding out" of manufacturing? On the basis of previous studies on combing the theories, after multiple perspectives describing the real estate and manufacturing development, we analyze the mechanism of real estate on the manufacturing sector, then based on the analysis proposed hypothesis:there is extrusion relationship between real estate and manufacturing, to establish the relationship between the two and build econometric model analysis of the relation between them, then according to the main line analyze the relation of them. The paper used 2012 input-output table of national and municipal representatives of the three regions of provincial, calculating influence coefficient and reaction coefficient of real estate and manufacturing. By constructing 2003--2014 31 National provinces panel data model, the fixed effect model divided the country, eastern, central and western regions.This paper concluded that:the real estate has the presence of crowding out manufacturing, but the crowding extent of the real estate in different parts is different. First, at the average level of national and western regions, the crowding-out effect of the real estate on manufacturing sector is not significant. Second, in the eastern and central regions, the real estate has produced crowding to manufacturing, the degree extruded that central region is greater than the eastern region. Third, in addition to the domestic free cash flow, the real estate has a variety of crowding out factor on manufacturing such as the level of financial development, FDI and so on.