Research On The Crowding-out Effect Of China's Real Estate On Manufacturing

In the late 1990 s,several fundamental changes happened in China's housing system,the welfare housing arrangement was abolished.Under such opportunity,the real estate industry developing rapidly and the real estate market is booming.The great development of the real estate industry has promoted the progress of many related industries,played a good driving role in the development of the industrial chain,and made a significant contribution to the sustainable development of the economy and society.However,the rapid development of the real estate industry has also had many negative effects on the economy,society and residents.Since 2000,China's real estate prices keep rising at a high rate,and housing prices have shown an excessive and irrational state,which has had a huge impact on the lives of residents and the development of other industries.At the same time,as the core and main body of China's real economy,the manufacturing industry is facing severe challenges under the constant changes in the international economic situation and domestic economic transformation.Under several negative conditions such as market shrinkage,cost increase,difficulty in financing,and labor shortage,China's manufacturing industry is large but not very competitive,its innovation capabilities need to be improved,product quality needs to be enhanced,and the problem of overcapacity needs to be adjusted.The profits of the manufacturing industry are constantly being diluted,and some export-oriented enterprises are even unable to sustain it.This is in sharp contrast to the trend of the real estate industry,which has led many manufacturing enterprises to withdraw and transfer their funds to the real estate industry,which make the development of China's manufacturing industry even more difficult.Therefore,discussing whether the real estate industry is crowding out the manufacturing industry has both theoretical and practical significance on economic development research.The stable and healthy development of China's economy requires the real estate industry and manufacturing industry to flourish and complement each other.This article believes that the irrational development of the real estate industry has squeezed out and negatively affected China's manufacturing industry.Therefore,this paper studies the theoretical relationship and mechanism between China's real estate industry and manufacturing industry,and examines whether and how it produced a "crowding effect" on the manufacturing industry.This paper reviews the relevant theories and studies at home and abroad.Based on these literature studies,it explores the path of the squeezeout effect between the two,and uses the influence coefficient and sensitivity coefficient to clarify the input production.This paper examined the mechanism of the effect of the real estate industry on the manufacturing industry,clarifies the influence mechanism of the two,and analyzes the development status of China's real estate industry and manufacturing industry.The empirical part of this article is to construct panel data from 30 provinces and cities nationwide from 2003 to 2017,to test the empirical method of the country and the east,central,and western regions of China,and to analyze each empirical result to draw conclusions.The research in this article shows that the irrational development of the real estate industry will have a "crowding effect" on the manufacturing industry,but the degree of crowding out of the manufacturing industry also varies in different regions.First,from a national perspective,the degree of crowding out of the real estate industry into manufacturing is relatively low.Secondly,from a regional perspective,the crowding out effect of the real estate industry on manufacturing is relatively obvious in the eastern regions,and relatively low in the central and western regions.At the end of this article,after the empirical result been examined,this article aims to present some proper policy suggestions on how to better cope with the crowding-out effect of the irrational development of the real estate industry on the manufacturing industry.