Power Source Mix Optimization Of Tianjin Under Carbon Cap And Trade Schemes

To mitigate climate change and achieve the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, since 2013, China has steadily pushed forward low-carbon provinces and low-carbon pilot cities. Power industry as an important source of carbon emissions, is considered to be the main responsibility body of carbon trading in the pilot scope. The new market-oriented means-carbon trading mechanism can promote power industry to carry out the national carbon reduction policy, make the electric power enterprise to implement energy conservation and emissions reduction, development and utilization of low carbon and energy saving technology, and promote low-carbon energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaic power generation to develop. As a carbon trading pilot, Tianjin plays an important role in the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. At present, the power generation structure of Tianjin city is mainly based on thermal power, clean energy power generation is less than 1%. Due to the low proportion of clean energy use, in recent years, environmental pollution is serious, more fog haze, and also has threat to Beijing’s environment.This paper on the basis of domestic and foreign related research, the power generation industry in traditional industrial city of Tianjin as the research object, first predicts the total generating capacity and CO2 emissions of Tianjin from 2014 to 2020 by setting up improved grey model. Based on it, calculates the total carbon quota of power generation industry involved in carbon emissions trading. Then assumes that the low carbon price and high carbon price two kinds of scenarios, through the difference between the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions and the total carbon quota, to calculate the cost of carbon trading in power generation industry, and puts it in the power generation cost. Next this paper takes the lowest total generating cost as the objective function, establishes ant colony optimization (ACO)-particle swarm optimization (PSO) hybrid model to optimize Tianjin power source mix from 2014 to 2020 to find out the reasonable power source mix of power generation industry, which will be coordinated with the energy development and environment. The results demonstrate that in the high carbon price scenario, the proportion of thermal power generation would be reduced from 90.32% in 2014 to 79.99% in 2020; in the low carbon price scenario, Tianjin proportion of thermal power generation need reduced from 94.71% in 2014 to 86.13% in 2020. Two scenarios of hydropower, wind power, solar power and other power generation technology proportion to rise year by year. So as to ensure that carbon dioxide emissions meet the carbon emissions quota constraints. At the same time, the total cost of the entire power industry is the lowest. Current growth rates of Tianjin renewable energy generation cannot meet the reasonable renewable energy allocation proportion in power source mix when the emission abatement cost increases in the future. In the long run, rapidly developing renewable energy generation will be a good choice for Tianjin’s power generation industry to reduce total generation cost and reach CO2 abatement reduction targets. At last, This paper provides suggestions for the development of low carbon in Tianjin power industry, from the legal norms, the market mechanism, economic policy and supervision and control four aspects.