The Main Effect Of Two-child Policy On Hubei Economy Development And Countermeasure

In recent years, Hubei’s economy has made remarkable achievements. Hubei’s economy growth rate is higher than the contemporary GDP rate in national wide. However, the economy downward trend in Hubei has emerged. And during this period, the population structure of Hubei province has also changed radically, from demographic dividend to demographic dividend. And this change affects the development of economy in many aspects. For examples, we have experienced twice adjustments of the population policy. One is the family planning policy since 1980, and the new second policy as transitional measurement, the other is the universal two-child policy has just come into force. According to the scholars, their researches have verified that, because of the family planning policy, the unnaturally changed population structure had affected the economic development in many ways. With the new policy, how Hubei economy will be, it’s worth studying.The author believes that, new changes in demographical structure will take place under the adjustment of population policy. First of all, the increased newborns will increase the children dependency ratio in short term, which will reduce the current capitalization rate and savings rate in Hubei Province and play a negative role in economic growth. But in the long run, when the newly added population take part into the labor market, the rise on proportion of the working population will promote the economy growth rate. Compared with maintaining the current fertility status, the universal two-child policy will exert great effects on economy growth rate in short time, but in the long-term, due to the increased newborn population, the old-age dependency ratio will become relatively lower, which contributes to economy growth.Though the comparisons of different economy growth rate between different birth ratio, the author finds that no matter how the newborn population will be increased in the short term, it can do nothing to change the increasingly serious aging wave, Hubei should change the way of the economy development. The author analyzed the three measures to deal with the economic downturn tendency. By changing the current status of education, vigorously develop vocational education, reduce the potential dependency ratio, which is 15-24 year olds dependency ratio, to ease the economic downward trend by the experience of foreign developed countries; thronging the vigorous development of the second industry and the assisted third industry to encounter the wave of aging; Bringing in advanced intellectuals, retaining young rich-knowledge labor and transferring rural surplus labor to cities to ensure the quantity and quality of labor force, ultimately to ease the downward trend, with all the "three carriages"...