Time-series Modeling And Analysis On The Price Index Of Cotton And Related Products

Cotton policy has been in continuous adjustment over the years, such as reforms of cotton circulation system, system for temporary storage of cotton, target price of cotton subsidies pilot and so on, leading to frequent fluctuation of domestic cotton prices and differences between international and domestic cotton prices, which has a certain influence on the development of textile industry. Based on the actual data of domestic cotton, cotton yarn, cotton fabric price indices under the market operation, this paper uses time series analysis, regression analysis etc. to model and analyze the price indices of various specifications of cotton, cotton yarn, cotton fabric.First of all, on the basis of reviewing the process of cotton policy reform in the past 60 years, the paper briefly analyzes the fluctuation of recent cotton price, which is due to the implementation and changes of the cotton temporary storage policy and target price reform policy. Besides, this paper empirically analyzes various specifications of domestic cotton,cotton yarn and cotton fabric price indices by Eviews 5.0 software, and establishes the corresponding prediction models after the stability test, the correlation diagram analysis,the model-order determination and the ARCH effect test. With the number of prediction increasing, the absolute error and relative error of prediction increase in volatility, and is smaller and relatively stable in the short term, afterwards, the errors are obvious amplified.From the quantitative analysis of correlation we can find that the correlation between the same category price indices are higher, indicating that their price indices fluctuation trend are consistent. Through discussing the correlation between domestic cotton, cotton yarn,cotton fabric price index after normalization processing, we can find that the correlation between two adjacent classes is higher.Lastly, this paper constructs regression equations of cotton 3128 B price index and other specifications of cotton, cotton yarn, cotton fabric price indices, in order to more easily obtained other specifications of cotton, cotton yarn, cotton fabric future price index when we know the future price index of cotton 3128 B. Through the analysis, cotton 3128 B and other specifications of cotton price index show a linear correlation, cotton 3128 B and cotton yarn, cotton fabric price index show a curve correlation. The empirical results show that the prediction error increases with the deepening of product processing, which is caused by many factors, such as time, place, market demand, industry status and so on.This paper model and forecasting analyze cotton, cotton yarn, cotton fabric price index time series based on the actual market, which provides a quantization method to study the cotton industry development for producers and business operators, and could also reflect the basic economic form of the market about cotton and related products, and provide an important reference for the macro management of the cotton industry.