A Research On Economic Growth Potential In Yunnan Province

It’s an eternal theme for economists to research economic growth, and it’s also a hot topic of common concern to all countries and regions all over the world. Economic growth is an extremely complicated social and economic problems, it’s an important indicator to reflect a country or a region’s economic development. Therefore, economists have been committed to economic growth theory research and put forward some new theories constantly. And in today’s world economy high speed development, all kinds of economic indicators can reflect of a country or a region’s economic development level, but it’s becoming more and more important to predict and maintain steady economic growth. So, according to the economic growth theory and combined with the actual situation, the thesis analyzes and forecasts the economic development situation of Yunnan province from 2001 to 2014, and puts forward feasible countermeasures and suggestions to promote and maintain steady economic growth.The thesis is based on macroeconomic theory to analyze and discuss economic growth potential problems in Yunnan. First, the thesis summarizes the history of economic growth theory, and the factors that affect economic growth such as labor, capital, science and technology, industrial structure and system reform, etc. Second, the thesis mainly analyzes the change of Yunnan’s economic indicators such as the Yunnan region’s GDP, the three main industries, the per capital GDP, fixed asset investment, social consumable total retail sales, the total amount foreign trade import and export, the permanent residents per capita disposable income and so on, then objectively analyzes Yunnan economic development situation. Also, the thesis is based on the statistical yearbook data of Yunnan in recent 10 years such as GDP, labor force, capital and other economic indicators data (according to the comparable price data), with the help of the improvement of the classical model of economic growth and econometric method and SPSS software for parameter estimation and fitting, forecast model for Yunnan economic growth is obtained. And the thesis qualitatively analyzes the tendency and structure problem of production factors, industrial structure and system reform and so on, and from the angle of their respective analyzes and forecasts Yunnan economic growth prospects. Finally, according to the comprehensive analysis, the thesis proposes some feasible countermeasures and suggestions to speed up the shift of Yunnan economic structure mode, promote rapid economic development in Yunnan, maintain steady economic growth and the construction of new Yunnan.