The Evaluation And Research On China’s Listed Banks’ Systemic Risk

In the background of increasing openness, China’s financial system is facing a double challenge of internal and external environment. The outbreak of the U.S. financial crisis and the debt crisis has a greater shock on the real economy and financial markets of the world. Therefore, It is an important global issue to defuse financial systemic risk and prevent the outbreak of the financial crisis. The bank is the most important part of financial system in China. It is very important and urgent to take the appropriate method of systemic risk, to identify and evaluate the systemic risk of banks effectively.This paper studies the systematic risk assessment of China’s listed banks and analyses the composition of bank systemic risk of listed deeply. The establishment of a risk assessment system is comprised of banks, macroeconomic, finance, real estate and international payments. This paper evaluates and analyses China’s listed banks’ systemic risk. According to the international experience of risk prevention system, this paper combines with China’s banking risk situation and puts forward the countermeasure to systemic risk of banks. The main content of this paper is divided into four parts, and a total of seven chapters:The first part is the theory analysis, including the first, the second and the third chapters. Based on summarizing literatures about causes and evaluation methods of bank systemic risk, this paper elaborate the definition, characteristics and evaluation methods of systemic risk of Chinese banks. This paper explains the relevant bank systemic risk theory,then lays the foundation for analyzing the subsequent risk, establishing index system and suggesting the supervision.The second part is the risk analysis, including the fourth chapter. This part makes the systematic risk of listed banks as research object, and analyses the development of Chinese banks. Combined with the contagion mechanism and source, the systematic risk of listed banks is analyzed, which lays the foundation for the establishment of risk assessmentsystem.The third part is empirical research, including the fifth chapter, which builds the evaluation index system of China’s listed banks systemic risk. This paper uses the AHP method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate and analyze systemic risks in2012 of 16 A-share listed banks. Last, the paper comes to the conclusion that a moderate risk of systemic risk of China’s listed banks.The fourth part is the proposed countermeasures, including sixth, seventh chapters.This part analyzes of the experience to prevent systemic risk of banks abroad and puts forward the countermeasures for China to cope with the systemic risk of bank based on the actual situation of China.The innovation of this paper:(1) this paper establishes an analysis framework of Chinese bank system risk with Chinese banks’ development features. Starting from the characteristics and systemic risk contagion mechanism, combined with the theoretical research of risk of the banking system,this paper decomposes the influence factors on bank systemic risk and gets the structure of bank systemic risk.(2) The establishment of a risk assessment system is comprised of banks, macroeconomic, finance, real estate and international payments and can be adjusted according to the characteristics of bank systemic risk in different stages of development, with strong applicability and flexibility.