A Study On The Impact Of The Exchange Rate Fluctuations Of Renminbi Against Ruble On Sino-russian Trade

Since the second half of 2014,Russian ruble continued to depreciate,because International oil prices continued to decline,Russia’s economic developed slowed and Europe and the US economic sanctions on Russia.Dose the sharp depreciation of the ruble against the yuan impact on China?Devaluation of the ruble,not only cause harm to Russia, it can also cause damage to China.on the one hand,devaluation of the ruble will make global investors for emerging market countries to reduce confidence,it also will lead to emerging market countries, including China, faced with the devaluation and capital flight test,on the other hand,evaluation of the ruble will lead to Russia’s economic recession,the strategic balance between Russia and China will be broken.From the view of business point,some people think that because of the economic volume of trade between China and Russia is not large,so the impact on China is not significant,but i think,China and Russia are big developing countries,and they are the BRIC countries in transition,but Sino-Russian trade volume of trade is far lower than Sino-Japan and Sino-korea.There is huge potential for future development of Sino-Russian trade,so we can not just use to analyze the current trade volume.If Russia’s economic stability,China and Russia in the energy, aerospace and high-speed rail can have a more in-depth cooperation,it’s benefit for China’s economic.So,China should be highly concerned about the development trend of the ruble,we should try to address the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade between China and Russia.In this case,this article will explore the impact of the exchange rate fluctuations of Renminbi against Ruble on Sino-Russian trade.This paper consists of four parts,the first part introduces the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade theories and models,including the theory of exchange rate flexibility,J-curve theory,it will provide theoretical support for the next content,Goldstein and Khan model,Wei Weixian model and Gravity Model,they are the foundation of model selection.The second part introduces the mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations on trade, i analyze the impact of the exchange rate fluctuations of Renminbi against Ruble on Sino-Russian trade,This paper analyzes the graph can be more intuitive.The third part is empirical analysis,this paper analyzes the impact of the nominal exchange rate and real exchange rate volatility on the size and structure of trade between China and Russia.The results show that the nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate had no significant impact on the Chinese imports from Russia,the actual exchange rate impact China’s exports to Russia, but the nominal exchange rate does not affect Chinese exports to Russia.In terms of economic structure, the nominal exchange rate affect Chinese exports of labor-intensive goods to Russia,Exchange rate fluctuations will not affect China export capital and technology-intensive goods to Russia and China imports of primary products from Russia and import manufactured goods from Russia.The fourth part, based on the previous text, In the case of exchange rate fluctuations uncertain,policy recommendations on how to develop Sino-Russian trade in the case of exchange rate fluctuations uncertain,Including the optimization of the structure of import and export commodities and play the advantages of international organizations and mechanisms and Import and export enterprises to strengthen risk prevention awareness, and improve the ability to cope with risks,etc.