| Since the government adopted the policy of the reform and opening up, China's foreign trade has made great progress, China has become the largest trading country all over the world. The relationship between the change of exchange rate and foreign trade has always been an important topic. On August 2015, the central bank promulgated the declaration of improving RMB-USD exchange rate, which further enforced the marketization of RMB. This is called new reform of exchange rate. Under socialist market economy, China need to adjust its commodity structure in export trade. Thus, the influence of fluctuations in RMB exchange rate on commodity structure of foreign trade is worth being studied.Based on the new reform of RMB exchange rate, the research of influence of RMB exchange rate on foreign trade made by scholars in and out of China has been reviewed. This thesis starts from the reason that RMB exchange rate changes and the national condition of primary stage of socialism. Then the thesis makes qualitative analysis on the influence of fluctuations in RMB exchange rate on foreign trade. And based on the calculation of elasticity of exchange rate and Grainger hypothesis, the thesis makes positive analysis on the influence of fluctuations in RMB exchange rate on China's import and export trade.Based on previous analysis, the thesis studies on china's export trade under new reform of exchange rate, leaving the RMB exchange rate continuously increases in short-term period but tends to be stable in long-term period with larger fluctuation scale. The results of the research are as follows:(1) The new reform of exchange rate speeds the mercerization of RMB, leading to RMB's wide-range fluctuation in short-term period. This fluctuation will further enforce the influence of RMB exchange rate to the price of export goods. (2) After the new reform of exchange rate, RMB depreciated sharply in short-term period. However, as the currencies of Southeast Asian countries depreciated against RMB and the labor cost rose in China as well as other influencing factors, the labor-intensive industry lost the comparative advantage. Even worse, the export amount decreased after several months. (3) RMB showed obvious sign of fluctuation with a large range after the new reform of exchange rate but tends to be stable in long-term period. Compared to labor-intense industry, the substitution and price elasticity of demand of capital and technology intense industry is relatively low. Thus, the impact of fluctuation of RMB exchange rate for capital and technology industry is smaller than that of labor-intensive industry. Then, capital and technology intense industry will bear less exchange risk. The capital will tend to be invested in capital and technology intense industry, creating the economies of scale. The proportion of capital and technology intense goods will further grow, driving the development of China's commodity structure in export trade in the future.Based on the above analysis, the thesis gives some suggestion on the adjustment of China's foreign trade policy under the reform of exchange rate. The macro suggestions are:improving the credibility of government, improving precautions for national economic security; accelerating the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure to decrease the trade hazard caused by RMB exchange rate's fluctuation; stimulating domestic demand to decrease the dependence of economic development on foreign trade; improving the diversity of export market and exploring partners to decrease the uncertainty of export market. Moreover, some micro suggestions are also brought up to decrease the risk from the fluctuations in exchange rate to China's exporters. The suggestions are: choosing the favorable payment terms; using counter trade and trade financing; buying insurance of exchange risk; adding benefit of a fall in price clause... |
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