Temporal And Spatial Cultivated Land Use Change And Driving Mechanism Based On GWR Model

The social attributes of cultivated land resources provide basic material support for people’s survival and development and these attributes are inseparable from cultivated land. In China, the total amount of arable land is large, the per capita arable land is small, lack of cultivated land reserve resources and little high standards of quality cultivated land. Cultivated land resources appear poor overall characteristics.However, the rapid development of social economy, population growth, the irrational exploitation of cultivated land, led to cultivated land had more scarce poor distribution of resources in quantity. Aksu Area occupy an important position in Xinjiang food production and food security aspects. We study the changes and driving forces of cultivated land use in Aksu area with the background of the western development, counterparts in Xinjiang and the background of “The Belt and Road ”strategic blueprint to study on the status, changes and driving forces of cultivated land use in Aksu area. According to the specific circumstances of Aksu Area, the sustainable use of cultivated land, the protection of local conditions and improving the quality of cultivated land to offer suggestions.Geographically Weighted Regression Model can realize the spatial differences.By the difference between the factors, the dynamic changes of cultivated land use can be analyzed. So that the results of the analysis can be used for the future sustainable use of cultivated land and the various counties according to their respective conditions to provide theoretical support for the protection of cultivated land. In this paper, Aksu city and county as the research object. Using the correlation method GWR model,ArcGIS9.3, SPSS17.0, DPS spatial data processing, to analyze the impact of Aksu area cultivated land use and changes in the main driving forces of cultivated land and temporal and spatial evolutions.Firstly, the article told the basic concept, content and methods about cultivated land use changes, driving forces. The basic theories and methods of regional economic theory, sustainable development theory and so on were expounded.Secondly, under the guidance of the theory, combined with qualitative andquantitative methods to analyze spatial and temporal variation characteristics of land use in Akesu area under the small scale of county(city) were analyzed from the aspects of quantity, space, degree and so on. Again, based on the analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of cultivated land use, used principal component analysis to select the dominant driving factors. Then, combined with GWR model to study the mechanism of the influence of dominant factors on the change of cultivated land utilization and find out the intrinsic link between the cultivated land use changes and the leading factor. Lastly, put forward relevant policy recommendations based on empirical analysis.