Study On Driving Forces Of Cultivated Land Use Change And It’s Forecast In Jiangxi Province Linchuan County

Land resources are precious human resources, and have irrefragable, belongs to the scarce resources. Although the cultivated land resource is a part of land resources, it plays an irreplaceable role in human’s survival and the development of the society. At present, with the development of economy and the acceleration of urbanization, a large number of cultivated land is used by construction land.On the other hand, as the population is increasing, the demand for cultivated land is more strong.It appeared the contradiction of cultivated land resource demand greater than supply. In general, the per capita cultivated land resources and total number of cultivated land resources are both in a sharp drop in,.The researches on the change of cultivated land resource is also widely carried out both at home and abroad.In this paper, the study area is a region of central city, and it has a total of 30 villages and towns. According to the regional statistical yearbook data from 1995 to 2012, the land use changed data from 2005 to 2011 and 2012 Linchuan current land use map data, it analyses cultivated land use change. Mainly includes the analysis of the district of cultivated land use status quo, and then from the cultivated land use quantity change, the difference of cultivated land use of space, in three areas. On the basis of in-depth analysis of cultivated land use change, the district land use change driving force factors are qualitative analysis.And then determing the social and economic indexes which influencing the change of cultivated land use. By using SPSS software and principal component analysis method to quantitative analysis, finally obtained the district land use change the drivers including economic development, population pressure, agricultural scientific and technological progress and the enthusiasm of the farmers. At last, using the district arable land date from 1995 to 2012, ARIMA model is set up. After passing inspection, it will get the district from 1995 to 2012 the cultivated land area fitting curve and the district land use to predict the next five years. The prediction results show: Linchuan next five years cultivated area decline. This is mainly due to the simultaneous development of Linchuan town but also in the industrial mid-term, the need for a large number of construction, especially at national level and upgrading of key projects, resulting in increased status of land for construction of farmland, so reducing the amount of cultivated land.On the basis of above quantitative analysis and aimed at the status and characteristics of the district land use change, summarizes the research conclusion and put forward some policy Suggestions,including strict protection of cultivated land protection policy, establish and improve the economic compensation mechanism, accelerate the information construction of cultivated land resource, focus on the development of agricultural technology, increase the intensity of land development and consolidation, improve the level of intensive land use, enhancing people’s consciousness to protect cultivated lands.