Research On The Estimation Methods Of The Environmental Cost Of High-speed Railway Based On Chaotic Time Series

Recently years, with the rapid development of high-speed railway, the construction and operation of high-speed railway has been more and more important in the infrastructure construction in our country. At the same time, there must be some inevitably effect on environment, such as ecological environment problems, the noise pollution, the vibration pollution, the atmospheric pollution, the solid waste and electromagnetic environment pollution. There is a far-reaching impact on people’s life and social development by the environment problems. How to protect the ecological environment and how to prevent and reduce the environment pollution has got the social attention. In the project feasibility study stage and decision stage of high-speed railway, we need to classify the environmental costs based on regional ecosystem environment characteristics, determine the environmental cost calculation content and estimate the environmental costs. The starting point of this paper is to prevent the negative externality of environment and allocation the social resources rationally, to provide accurate and reliable prediction method in the project feasibility study period and decision period and to provide objective reference and practice for the construction and operation of subsequent high-speed railway.Based on the purpose of building the estimation methods of high-speed railway, this paper make the further research and discussion for the environmental cost calculation contents of the high-speed railway. Combining with the whole life cost-significant theory, this paper selects chaotic time series to establish the estimation model. First of all, this paper analysis and study on the environmental cost calculation content to build the whole life cycle of high-speed railway environmental cost calculation content system.Secondly,this paper focus on the collection of the high-speed railway raw environmental cost by the reference of the history completed and opened project. Combining with the cost-significant theory, this paper make the data mining and establish the whole life environmental cost database for the high-speed railway.Finally,this paper apply chaotic time series to formulate the prediction model and train the actual data. The results show that the model is accuracy and adaptability, which can significantly improve the accuracy of the high-speed railway environmental cost estimation. The research for the high-speed railway environmental cost and its estimation model has a great significance means for measuring the economic benefits and social benefits.