Study On The Feasibility And Effects Of Free Trade Area Between China And Russia Under "The Belt And Road " Background

Chinese and Russia as a major developing country,although plays an important role in the international political arena, but everywhere constraints in the US led western countries, the lack of adequate voice especially in the formulation of international trade rules of the game,Although there are more than 20 years of steady growth of economic and trade cooperation process between the two countries,overall bilateral trade scale is not large enough, cooperation in the field of small area, level is not deep enough,which is not only inconsistent with the both sides of the great nation status,political relations with the two high temperature inconsistent.The government of China put forward “The Belt and Road" strategy, aimed at building a common benefit of many countries of the world and the new pattern,new order of economic development,in line with the development trend of the world economy and regional economic integration. "The Belt and Road" strategy provides a good opportunity to expand areas of cooperation and deepen the cooperation projects of Sino Russian, promoting the construction of FTA,participate in the formulation of new rules of international trade,countries in the world to consolidate the status.Therefore,the Chinese and Russian governments should firmly seize the strategic opportunity to guide the business circles of the two sides to form a consensus,putting the construction of Sino Russian free trade zone on the institutional level up as soon as possible.This paper referring to the basis of a large number of documents and relevant materials,putting free trade area effect theory, comparative advantage theory and the intra industry trade theory as a foundation. Firstly, the paper introduces the current situation of the development of Sino Russian trade. It is pointed out that between China and Russia in the development of bilateral trade,bilateral investment and science and technology,labor service cooperation status and problems,using comparative advantage index and trade complementary dominant empirical index, intra industry trade index to analyse the feasibility of the establishment of the Sino Russian FTA;Dynamic and static effect and then from the two aspects of the FTA theory to analyze the trade effects of the establishment of Sino Russian FTA;Finally, using the gravity model of trade empirical analysis of the factors affecting the establishment of Sino Russian FTA, trade effect produced by the partial equilibrium model to establish a free trade zone between China and Russia to simulate and forecast,the establishment of a free trade zone after the Sino Russian trade scale will greatly increase;the end of the study combined qualitative and quantitative analysis, combined with the above analysis results, analyzes the problems and obstacles encountered in the current Sino Russian trade, and puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions on establishing Sino Russian fta.