Applied Research About Logistic Model On Risk Waring Of Financial SMES Based On Factor Analysis

This paper takes the small and medium-sized listing Corporation as the research object,Select the first warning of the company’s financial data for the first 3 years,Combined with the financial characteristics of small plates,From the five parts of the profit level, cash flow status, operation ability, growth ability and solvency, 33 financial variables are selected, which are representative, comprehensive and sensitive to small and medium sized enterprises,then,Application of logistic model in financial risk early warning.Logistic method was used to analyze the financial data of 3 years, respectively, to establish a different period of logistic financial risk early warning model, and use the corresponding forecast group of samples to verify the model.The results show that the correct rate of model training / prediction is: 100.00%/86.67%, 86.67%/76.67%, 83.33%/70.00%.In view of the shortcomings of the logistic model, such as multi co linearity, insufficient generalization ability and so on, factor analysis method is used to extract the financial index, optimize the logistic modeling process, establish the logistic financial risk early warning model based on factor analysis.The final model of the rate of correct training / correct prediction rates were: 100.00%/86.67%, 100.00%/90.00%, 86.67%/73.33%. Overall, the prediction accuracy of the logistic financial risk early warning model based on factor analysis is higher than that of the original model.At the same time, the results of three years of prediction are considered synthetically, and the comprehensive ability of the model is compared.The prediction accuracy of the model in different periods is taken as the weight, and the judgement results of different risk early warning models are integrated.Validation results show that,Logistic model prediction results of comprehensive judgement equation of all the sample companies forecast accuracy was 81.67%, and prediction of the sample companies based on factor analysis logistic financial risk early warning model of comprehensive judgement equation correct rate was 86.67%.Based on the results of a comprehensive logistic model factor analysis to determine the prediction accuracy is higher than the original logistic model.Finally, this paper summarizes the work of the inadequate application and research model, the next step and so on are described.