Construction And Application Of Financial Early Warning Model Of Pharmaceutical Industry Based On Principal Component Logistic Model

As a pharmaceutical industry with high capital and high-tech investment,the overall situation of the development of such listed companies in China is good.However,in the face of strong competition from international enterprises,and with the introduction of new medical reform policies,it is urgent for listed companies in China's pharmaceutical industry to improve their production,operation and financial management capabilities.This paper is based on the early warning research of financial risk of Listed Companies in the pharmaceutical industry,in order to provide some reference for the early warning of financial crisis of Listed Companies in the pharmaceutical industry in China.This paper first designs the financial risk early warning index system of Listed Companies in the pharmaceutical industry.According to the special nature of the pharmaceutical industry,56 financial risk early warning indexes are preliminarily selected from the financial perspective of profitability,solvency,operating ability and non-financial perspective of equity concentration and shareholder relevance.Then,F test is used to screen the indexes according to the importance degree Finally,34 financial risk early-warning indicators are selected according to the importance degree;then,the 34 indicators selected are analyzed by principal component analysis,and five factors are determined;finally,the principal component logistic model for financial crisis early-warning is constructed by using logistic regression,and the early-warning threshold point in this model is determined by misjudgment cost method.After the model and early warning threshold point are determined,30 groups of relevant index data of pharmaceutical industry that are not involved in the modeling are used to test the established model.Through the test,the overall accuracy of the model established under the principal component analysis method is about 87.1%.The analysis shows that the construction of logistics model with principal component method has certain reference significance for the financial risk early warning research of China's pharmaceutical industry.Finally,taking Taiji Group Co.,Ltd.as an example,this paper uses the financial early warning model to predict and analyze,and draws a conclusion that Taiji Group has a certain degree of financial crisis.Through the index data of the company,the paper analyzes the specific reasons for the financial crisis of the enterprise,and puts forward the corresponding preventive measures.