New Product Diffusion Model Of ICT Industry Based On The Complex Networks

ICT industry takes more than 20% share of China’s GDP, and it plays a vital role in the national economic development, for ICT industry has become an important platform for the country’s competitiveness upgrading. The new product of ICT industry has a very strong network effects characteristic and thus there lies a great difference between the diffusion model of new product of ICT industry and the traditional diffusion model of new product.The focus of this dissertation is the diffusion modeling problem of new products of ICT industry. This study of this dissertation includes the network effect according to the characteristics of this industry, the analysis of local and global network effects, and the important role of network effects when consumers making their decision. An agent-based simulation model is established to analyze the influence by network effects and structure to the diffusion of new ICT products and compare the diffusion patterns under different network effects. We put forward that when installed base is too small, higher network effects intensity may lead to worse diffusion pattern, and global network effect can ease this influence. Also we put forward that SW network can benefit consumers in communication and raise diffusion extent accordingly, and the scale-free characteristics of SF network can be used to marketing activities. All these conclusions not only indicate the network effect composed of consumer interactions is an important factor influencing the diffusion of ICT new products, but also provide intervene strategies for enterprises.