The Evolution Analysis And Control Research Of The Network Public Opinions In Internet Era

Under the background of the Internet era, people's work, life and communication method have profoundly changed. The network has become the "fourth media" after the three media, people can access to information quickly and generate information through the Internet, which make the Internet be a major source of a derivative of the social public opinions, and make the expression and dissemination of public opinions be more liberalized and diversified, so network become a huge public space. In this context, a network of public opinion can be easy to form. Without the proper guidance to the network of public opinions, the internet public opinions is likely to evolve into a crisis, thereby to affect social stability. Above all, people should pay more attention on the analysis of network public opinions.From the perspective of the internet public opinions, this paper analyses the method of the evolution of public opinions by analyzing the characteristics of the network, communication mechanisms and mechanism of action. Based on the complex dynamics of the evolution of public opinions in the network, the paper uses GARCH model and its extension model to analyze the overall fluctuations characteristic of public opinions, which is optimization method with a mature theory and volatility descriptive different-ed from normally time series analysis model that can not solve the problem of the differential variance. Based on the analysis of the feasibility of the model, this paper uses the accident "8.12 Tianjin explosion" to empirical analysis, and GARCH model fits well the volatility clustering feature of public opinions, which has very important reference value for the fluctuations of the internet public opinions. Based on wave theory, this paper builds a model to analyze the network of public opinions and shows the asymmetry volatility characteristics, and finds that the positive information has a greater influences in fluctuations in public opinions, which provides us for direction and control of public opinions through the dissemination of information to weigh the positives and control the negative information.For a good control of the evolution trends of the internet public opinions, the article analyses the trend of information at the four stages of evolution by the Gray System Theory Model. Based on the index pattern of the public opinions system of energy law and elapsed saturation characteristics of the public opinions at late stage, the paper proposes the gray model and it can depict the various stages of the trend of public opinion which provide the early warning technical support for prediction and control at every stage of the evolution. Then the article tries to observe directly and predict the trend at all stages of the evolution of the internet public opinions by constructing the gray system dynamics simulation model. By building the gray system dynamics stock-flow diagram of public opinions, and by means of system dynamics simulation, the paper shows the output of the public opinions heat trends in the various stages, which provides a new means to analyze, predict and control the trend of public opinions.Finally, based on the evolution of the internet public opinions at different stages and the empirical research, the paper gives the control ideas for the evolution and management of network public opinions to guide the standardization of the network.