Research On Early Warning Criterion Of Soil Landslides Using Monitoring Data

In Fujian,the typhoon rainstorm occur frequently,the typhoon rainstorm are the main inducing factors of landslide disasters in Fujian province,The typhoon rainstorm are the main inducing factors of landslide disasters in Fujian province,it’s important to carry out the typhoon rainstorm earthiness landslides early recognition research,and provides the related theory basis for the disaster prevention and mitigation work.The thesis takes Dehua county as studying area,based on meteorological in Fujian province and the studying area,analyzes the distribution characteristics of the rainfall landslides.The article by using the monitoring data combined with numerical simulation,and mathematical Modeling.Then,the prediction total displacement was obtained.The main results are as followed:(1)Moisture content of the slope,the basic trend of groundwater level and Surface displacement is closely related to rainfall intensity and both of them variation remained the same.The water content and groundwater level of slope are lagging behind in rainfall occurrence time,which can be seen the rainfall infiltration has some time effect.(2)The saturation area of MaPing will be disperse under super typhoon rainstorm conditions.With the rainfall,the slope of soil pore pressure increased from shallow to deep and bottom.(3)The safety factor of the slope has a significant reduction during the early infiltration in heavy rainfall.But the trends will gradually slow and stabilize as time goes.However,there is still the possibility of instability in the local position.(4)Combine with the results of numerical simulation and real-time monitoring data to determine the leading edge of the Maping landslide is likely to be the risk surface of damage and further slides may exist.The evolution is from deep to shallow and bottom.(5)In this process,the time series analysis method was used to separate the landslide displacement into trend term displacement and seasonal tenn displacement,based on fuzzy uncertainty and random uncertainty and a certain regularity of deformation parameters,improved grey--time series time-varying prediction model,in which grey theory and traditional time series analysis method are combined.Improved GM(1,1)is utilized to extract the trend term of the displacement of slope.After extract the seasonal term of the displacement,which could be processed by AR model.Finally,it was obtained the total displacement prediction by stacking of two displacement components.(6)In order to get the probability threshold interval for warning criterion in landslide area in most cases,by way of case-based reasoning systems,the greatest similarity critical displacement rate in landslide hazard point can be used as the probability threshold interval for warning criterion in landslide area.