Landslide Probability Analysis And Early Warning Based On Typhoon Tracking

Fujian Province is located in the southeast coastal zone,with a warm and humid climate and sufficient rainfall.The rainy season beginning in April often brings long-term low-intensity continuous rainfall,and from July to September,typhoons often make landfall,bringing shortduration high-intensity rainfall.Therefore,typhoons and rains have become the main inducing factors for mountain landslides in Fujian Province.Quanzhou is located in southern Fujian.The terrain in the area is dominated by low mountains and hills.It is often affected by typhoons and rains.It is one of the areas with a high incidence of landslide disasters in Fujian Province.This thesis analyzes the landslides caused by the typhoon path from multiple scales.Taking Fujian Province as a large-scale research object,using statistical methods to analyze the relationship between the typhoon path,rainfall and landslide disasters in 8 typhoons;Taking Quanzhou City as the medium-scale research object,the logistic regression method is used to analyze the probability between rainfall and landslide occurrence.On this basis,taking the Meiting Village landslide in Huqiu Town,Anxi County,Quanzhou City as a small-scale object,analyzing its seepage and the evolution of safety factors in the eight typhoons studied,and proposing corresponding landslide warning methods.The main results obtained are as follows:(1)The Kriging interpolation method in ARCGIS 10.6 is used to couple the typhoon path,rainfall data and typhoon rain and landslide data.The results show that there are three main areas with high incidence of typhoon rain-type landslide disasters in Fujian Province,namely NanpingSanming area,Ningde area,and Quanzhou area;the path of the typhoon directly determines the range of rainfall,,the central pressure and wind speed of the typhoon directly affect Rainfall intensity and rainfall duration.(2)Analyze the collected rainfall data of 147 landslides in the study area and the rainfall of 8typhoon events that occurred from 2016 to 2020.LOGISTIC regression method is used to calculate the rainfall factor suitable for Quanzhou City,and it is obtained that it is within the range of the typhoon path.Based on the LOGISTIC regression model,a typhoon rain-type landslide occurrence probability model under typhoon rain conditions in Quanzhou area.(3)Taking the typhoon "Dujuan" as an example.The typhoon rain-type landslide occurrence probability model under typhoon rain conditions in Quanzhou City obtained by the coupling result of the Kriging interpolation method and the LOGISTIC method was tested.The probabilistic model obtained from the test results conforms to safety.(4)A simulation of the stability coefficient of the landslide in Meiting Village,Huqiu Town,Anxi County,Quanzhou City under various typhoon conditions showed that the stability coefficient of the landslide was related to the rainfall intensity,previous rainfall,and rainfall duration under various typhoon conditions.Time-varying transient stability coefficient is closely related to rainfall time history.The longer the stability factor is in a very dangerous state,the easier it is for landslides,such as typhoon "Meranti" and typhoon "Nepartak" conditions;while in typhoon "Haitang" and typhoon "Nasat" conditions,Under the circumstances,although there is high intensity rainfall,the rainfall duration is short,and the stability coefficient is in a very dangerous state for a short time,so such typhoons are not easy to cause landslide disasters.