| The west of Jilin province locates the east of the transition zone between cropping area and nomadic,which has a Chinese eastern humid monsoon climate.It is a transitional zone between arid zone and semi-arid zone,which is a ecologically vulnerable area.Under the influence of anthropogenic activity,the ecological environment of research area goes from bad to worse,especially the wetland is fierce,which deteriorate the ecological environment and threaten the sustainable development of the research area.The wetland of this paper refers to marsh wetland,excluding rivers,lakes and paddy fields.This paper regards remote images as primary information source,using the geographic information technology and mathematical statistics methods and combining spatial auto correlation with Geogdetector,which has a quantitative analysis of driving factors and describing wetland spatial characteristic and Tupu changes.Then It predict the wetland patterns in different scenes through the CA-Markov model,the conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1)From the standpoint of the spatial distribution,the wetland areas in the west of Jilin province had a decreasing trend and the wetland areas in the northwestward of the research area and nearby rivers shank,besides,the wetland area reduce 4772.41km2 in total in 1954-2014.The global spatial autocorrelation exponent present a trend of ‘N' changes.Through calculating the local spatial autocorrelation,it concluded that high-high autocorrelation and low-low autocorrelation of the wetland in the west of Jilin province both reduce to increase first,then decreased.In the wetland spatial changes pattern,the lose pattern of early stage had a high range,secondly the pattern of mid stage,the increase pattern of the middle and later period and the lose pattern of later period account for low percentage.(2)The areas of wetland loss in different driving factors included meadow soil,the flood plain,the slope of 88.23-89.29,the altitude of 129-178 km,the distance to settlement of 4.5-9km and the distance to river of 6km in 2000-2014.The result points that different geomorphic types(-20.3%),vegetation forms(14.9%),average temperature(-13.3%),soil types(10.7%)and GDP per capita(10.1%)have larger explanatory power in the analysis of the relative importance for the wetland changes.The interaction between scientific factors and social factors,the interaction between vegetation forms and population density has a largest explanatory power,which is Enhance,nonlinear of 38.1%,indicating that the interaction has a acceleration for wetland loss.(3)The result of stimulation and verification through CA-Markov model indicates that the simulative Kappa exponent is 0.7968.It shows that the result of stimulation is relatively ideal.So the paper set three scenes,natural condition,planning priority and ecology priority respectively,which predict the wetland distribution of 2030 and have a contrastive analysis.It presents that the patch fragmentation for wetland is lower and the degree of dominance is higher in the ecology priority scene.Consequently,the ecology priority scene is beneficial to the wetland protection and sustainable development of region.This paper inverse analysis of wetland spatial pattern evolution by setting up Tupu.It deepen the understanding of wetland spatial information and processing,providing scientific basis for wetland recovering and administrating in the west of Jilin province. |
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