The Landslide Monitoring And Warning Forecast Technology Research In Zhenjiang Paoma Mountain

The increased of extreme weather and human's engineering activities,the landslide geological disasters in our country show a trend of multiple trends.In recent years,the landslide geological disasters increased year by year,especially in the eastern coastal areas.This article is based on the project of the landslide disaster prevention and control in Zhenjiang City,the monitoring and forecasting of landslide is carried out.In the system research,information collection and field engineering geological survey,on the basis of systematic analysis of the characteristics of Zhenjiang geological environment,the influence factors of landslide disaster characteristics and activation of the ancient landslide,Paoma mountain's engineering geological characteristics is been mainly studied.Through the drilling and soil tests,a slope rock mass physical and mechanical indexes was defined and on this basis,the slop surface deformation monitoring was determine and with the combination of rainfall monitoring programmed and construction monitoring.With the realization of automatic remote monitoring by wireless network system,the dynamic deformation of the slope is grasped in real time,and the prediction of this landslide geological hazard is realized successfully.The following results were obtained.1.The analysis and treatment of mutation data in the deformation monitoring data was done.The missing data is interpolated by Matlab programming,which provided continuous and reliable monitoring data for the analysis of landslide deformation and prediction forecast.2.Based on the analysis of the geological characteristics and the monitoring data,the evolution law of the deformation of the landslide was studied.On the cumulative displacement data of the monitoring data,the deformation and destruction stage of the landslide was determined by the cumulative displacement rate method.In Zhenjiang's rainfall data and the cumulative displacement data,on the basis of combination of identify the Paoma mountain landslide deformation and failure stage,then reached the mechanism of its deformation and failure.3.Based on the Saito method,one model used for the establishment was builded.Through the analysis and calculation of the strain duration curve and the accelerated deformation stage strain duration curve,it can concluded the time of this landslide eventually destroys.4.Based on the dynamic GM(1,1)model,the prediction model of the landslide deformation trend was carried out.By calculation,the optimal data sequence length is determined,and the reliability of the calibration model is given.5.On the basis of the nonlinear grey time prediction model,the study of the prediction model of failure is carried out.This model is applied to the prediction study of the total loss and stability of the landslide and the results of the study provide the basis for the monitoring and prevention of slope monitoring in Zhenjiang area.