Remote Monitoring And Dynamic Simulation Of Coastal Zone Change In Tianjin Binhai New Area

Tianjin Binhai New Area is the center of the Bohai economic circle and located in the eastern coastal areas of Tianjin.In order to meet the needs of human living space and socio-economic development,a large number of reclamation activities have been carried out in Tianjin Binhai New Area.There are many problems such as planning,supervision and management,project approval and so on in the reclamation project of Tianjin Binhai New Area before the national reclamation planning in 2006,and there are many hidden dangers in the engineering quality and ecological environment etc.Moreover,there are many hidden dangers in engineering quality,ecological environment etc.After Tianjin Binhai New Area was assigned to the new round of national master plan in 2006,the construction speed of reclamation projects is rapidly accelerating.To develop and protect the coastal zone rationally and scientifically,the trend of land use types in coastal zone of Tianjin Binhai New Area was dynamic analyzed and the characteristics of coastline change were studied,which based on Landsat TM / ETM + / OLI data in 1995,2000,2005,2010 and 2015.On this basis,by combining the appropriate constraints which were selected from the perspective of land use type change and the transfer matrix of land use type in 2010-2015 the CA-Markov model was constructed to simulate the land use situation in 2020 Binhai New Area of Tianjin coastal zone,and based on the simulation analysis to extract coastline in 2020,while to analyze the variation characteristics of the coastal zone of Tianjin Binhai New Area in 2015-2020 under the current reclamation intensity.The results shows that:(1)During 1995-2020,major changes in the coastal zone land use types are wetland,cultivated land,construction land and sea area.The main characteristics of the changes are wetlands,cultivated land and sea area to the construction land and the sea area turns to the wetland and the construction land,while the latter is the main land use type which leads to the coastline change.(2)Using the distribution of construction land,construction land control zoning,the basic farmland protection area and sea area planning zone bit as limiting factors to make the atlas of suitability for coastal change that combined 2005-2010 land change transfer matrix to get land use type distribution data in 2015 by simulation.By comparing with the actual results of 2015,the Kappa coefficient is 0.8973 and the simulation precision is high.(3)Coastal land use data of 2020 is simulated by using the validated model.From the perspective of time and space analysis and under the condition of maintaining the current reclamation,by 2020,central fishing area,Dongjiang port area,Lingang industrial area will exceed the planned area;the area of the coastal leisure tourism area and the reclamation area of the southern port area can be kept within the planned area and the reclamation area is less than the planned area of Nangang Industrial Zone.In view of this trend,some suggestions on the future development of Tianjin Binhai New area were given.